Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Fair Value 2026

KTOS · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) trades at $43.71, versus a $10.63 median fair value across its 11 active models — 75.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.55.

Key Facts

Ticker
KTOS
Price
$43.71
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $10.63, 75.7% below the current price of $43.71. Estimates range from $3.45 to $56.38. KTOS scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. KTOS’s -75.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -27.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KTOS?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.55 -89.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.77 -84.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.63 -75.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $15.77 -63.9%
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What Is KTOS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.45 to $56.38

CirclFi's 11 active models place Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) between $3.45 and $56.38 per share, a spread of 498% of the median. The median of that range — $10.63 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KTOS, against a current price of $43.71.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.45median $10.63$56.38
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.45
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$56.38
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KTOS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KTOS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.63, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $43.71. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-75.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $56.38 (+29.0%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.45 (-92.1%). This +121.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KTOS?

11 of 13 models are currently active for KTOS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KTOS is $10.63 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.55 on its own, implying -89.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KTOS Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, KTOS ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Within the Aerospace & Defense space, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. competes in an environment where R&D as percentage of revenue often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is KTOS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KTOS a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KTOS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KTOS's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

NPKNational Presto Industries, Inc.QOC 7.4BAThe Boeing CompanyQOC 7.3LOARLoar Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6VSECVSE CorporationQOC 7.3SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3SATLSatellogic Inc.QOC 5.9SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.QOC 4.0GEGE AerospaceQOC 8.6BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: NPK · BA · LOAR · VSEC · SARO · MRCY · SATL · SPCX · GE · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KTOS?

7 companies across all industries closest to KTOS’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

MRBKMeridian CorporationQOC 7.4JBLUJetBlue Airways CorporationQOC 7.4BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4FPIFarmland Partners Inc.QOC 7.4SNWVSANUWAVE Health, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MRBK · JBLU · BXC · FUL · FPI · SNWV · NVDA

Where Does KTOS Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

KTOS is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS)'s intrinsic value at $10.63 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.45 to $56.38. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.55 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KTOS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.71, 1 of 11 active models suggest KTOS may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $10.63, 75.7% below the current price of $43.71 — a consensus view that KTOS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for KTOS?

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KTOS?

CirclFi analyzes KTOS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KTOS?

Of the 11 models currently active on KTOS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $56.38 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.45. CirclFi's published fair value for KTOS is the median of that range, $10.63, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 498% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KTOS a value trap in 2026?

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) has a median fair value of $10.63 — 75.7% below the current price of $43.71 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KTOS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KTOS valuation

Market data for KTOS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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