Original Research · Updated Daily
CirclFi US Market Valuation Index
64.0% of the 3,777 US equities CirclFi rated on 2026-10-07 trade above their 13-model median fair value. The median US equity sits at an implied -20.1% versus consensus fair value. Only 16 companies have 8 or more models unanimously implying undervaluation. Every figure is recomputed after each US market close.
Why 3,777 and not 5,832: CirclFi publishes a page for all 5,832 US equities it covers, and 3,777 of those have enough filing history for at least two of the 13 models to return a usable fair value on 2026-10-07. Only that second group can be called overvalued or undervalued, so it is the sample for every figure below. The remaining 2,055 are recent listings, shell companies and issuers with incomplete XBRL; excluding them is deliberate, since counting them as fairly valued would flatten both tails of the distribution.
Data as of · Sample: 3,777 of 5,832 covered US-listed equities · Sources: SEC EDGAR, FRED, GDELT · Read the limitations first
What Share of US Stocks Trade Above Fair Value?
64.0% of the 3,777 US equities CirclFi rated on 2026-10-07 trade above their 13-model median fair value.
The median US equity trades at an implied -20.1% versus CirclFi's 13-model consensus fair value as of 2026-10-07.
Only 16 US stocks (0.42%) had 8 or more CirclFi models unanimously imply undervaluation on 2026-10-07.
CirclFi flagged 91 US stocks on 2026-10-07 that imply more than 30% upside while also scoring 40 or above on the Value Trap risk index — statistically cheap, but structurally risky.
Of the 80 US sectors CirclFi rates with at least 15 companies, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials is the most expensive (median -72%) and Telecom Services the cheapest (median +39%) as of 2026-10-07.
| Classification | Companies | Share of market |
|---|---|---|
| Trading above median fair value | 2,419 | 64.0% |
| Trading below median fair value | 1,358 | 36.0% |
| Unanimous undervaluation (8+ models) | 16 | 0.42% |
| Unanimous overvaluation (8+ models) | 138 | 3.65% |
| Cheap (>30% upside) but trap risk ≥40 | 91 | 2.41% |
Which US Sectors Are Most and Least Overvalued?
CirclFi publishes a median implied mispricing for every US sector with at least 15 rated companies — 80 sectors as of 2026-10-07. A negative figure means the typical company in that sector trades above CirclFi's 13-model median fair value. Sectors are ordered most expensive first.
| # | Sector | Median mispricing | Median QOC | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | -72% | 7.9 | 28 |
| 2 | Semiconductors | -65% | 7.4 | 56 |
| 3 | Biotechnology | -62% | 6.1 | 167 |
| 4 | Electronic Components | -59% | 8.2 | 32 |
| 5 | Diagnostics & Research | -53% | 7.4 | 31 |
| 6 | Communication Equipment | -50% | 7.4 | 35 |
| 7 | Steel | -50% | 6.7 | 19 |
| 8 | Computer Hardware | -48% | 6.9 | 23 |
| 9 | Scientific & Technical Instruments | -46% | 8.1 | 21 |
| 10 | Specialty Industrial Machinery | -45% | 8.3 | 63 |
| 11 | Medical Devices | -41% | 7.2 | 73 |
| 12 | Integrated Freight & Logistics | -41% | 7.7 | 19 |
| 13 | Other Industrial Metals & Mining | -40% | 5.3 | 30 |
| 14 | REIT - Industrial | -38% | 7.8 | 15 |
| 15 | REIT - Retail | -37% | 7.6 | 25 |
| 16 | REIT - Healthcare Facilities | -37% | 7.2 | 17 |
| 17 | Utilities - Regulated Gas | -32% | 7.3 | 15 |
| 18 | Building Materials | -32% | 8.0 | 15 |
| 19 | Trucking | -32% | 7.3 | 15 |
| 20 | Building Products & Equipment | -32% | 7.8 | 30 |
| 21 | Specialty Chemicals | -31% | 7.3 | 54 |
| 22 | Capital Markets | -31% | 6.9 | 57 |
| 23 | Electrical Equipment & Parts | -30% | 6.9 | 35 |
| 24 | REIT - Residential | -30% | 7.1 | 20 |
| 25 | Engineering & Construction | -28% | 8.0 | 39 |
| 26 | Medical Instruments & Supplies | -28% | 7.5 | 37 |
| 27 | Industrial Distribution | -27% | 8.0 | 21 |
| 28 | Medical Care Facilities | -27% | 7.3 | 39 |
| 29 | Entertainment | -27% | 7.5 | 31 |
| 30 | Aerospace & Defense | -27% | 7.3 | 74 |
| 31 | Software - Infrastructure | -25% | 7.8 | 112 |
| 32 | Utilities - Regulated Electric | -22% | 7.2 | 38 |
| 33 | Banks - Regional | -22% | 8.0 | 336 |
| 34 | Oil & Gas Integrated | -21% | 7.4 | 17 |
| 35 | Software - Application | -21% | 7.8 | 150 |
| 36 | Internet Retail | -20% | 7.7 | 27 |
| 37 | Gold | -20% | 5.8 | 40 |
| 38 | Leisure | -19% | 7.5 | 24 |
| 39 | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | -18% | 7.8 | 45 |
| 40 | Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances | -16% | 7.9 | 22 |
| 41 | Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | -16% | 8.3 | 20 |
| 42 | REIT - Diversified | -13% | 7.3 | 15 |
| 43 | REIT - Specialty | -13% | 7.6 | 19 |
| 44 | Restaurants | -12% | 7.6 | 42 |
| 45 | Internet Content & Information | -11% | 7.5 | 49 |
| 46 | Auto & Truck Dealerships | -11% | 7.8 | 17 |
| 47 | Packaging & Containers | -11% | 7.8 | 19 |
| 48 | Apparel Manufacturing | -11% | 7.5 | 19 |
| 49 | Packaged Foods | -11% | 7.6 | 44 |
| 50 | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | -11% | 7.6 | 17 |
| 51 | Marine Shipping | -10% | 7.1 | 26 |
| 52 | Insurance - Property & Casualty | -10% | 8.5 | 40 |
| 53 | Real Estate Services | -10% | 6.8 | 30 |
| 54 | Auto Parts | -9% | 7.7 | 43 |
| 55 | Conglomerates | -6% | 7.1 | 19 |
| 56 | Specialty Retail | -5% | 7.6 | 34 |
| 57 | Insurance Brokers | -5% | 7.8 | 18 |
| 58 | Oil & Gas Midstream | -5% | 7.7 | 51 |
| 59 | Banks - Diversified | -2% | 8.0 | 20 |
| 60 | Oil & Gas E&P | -2% | 7.7 | 66 |
| 61 | Household & Personal Products | -2% | 7.6 | 21 |
| 62 | Apparel Retail | -1% | 7.7 | 26 |
| 63 | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | -0% | 7.2 | 50 |
| 64 | Health Information Services | +1% | 7.5 | 28 |
| 65 | Specialty Business Services | +1% | 7.9 | 31 |
| 66 | Rental & Leasing Services | +2% | 7.1 | 17 |
| 67 | Residential Construction | +3% | 8.1 | 19 |
| 68 | Asset Management | +4% | 5.5 | 161 |
| 69 | Information Technology Services | +5% | 7.4 | 56 |
| 70 | REIT - Office | +6% | 6.9 | 20 |
| 71 | Education & Training Services | +8% | 8.2 | 22 |
| 72 | Travel Services | +15% | 8.1 | 15 |
| 73 | Insurance - Life | +15% | 7.8 | 16 |
| 74 | Drug Manufacturers - General | +23% | 8.4 | 17 |
| 75 | Credit Services | +23% | 7.6 | 43 |
| 76 | REIT - Mortgage | +24% | 7.2 | 32 |
| 77 | Advertising Agencies | +33% | 6.7 | 21 |
| 78 | Auto Manufacturers | +37% | 7.2 | 15 |
| 79 | Airlines | +39% | 7.5 | 16 |
| 80 | Telecom Services | +39% | 7.3 | 41 |
Browse the ranked companies behind any sector on the CirclFi stock lists.
How Often Do the 13 Models Agree With Each Other?
Model disagreement is information, not noise: it measures how sensitive a company's valuation is to methodology. A company where 13 independent approaches converge is a fundamentally different proposition from one where they split evenly, even at the same median.
| Consensus level | Companies | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Unanimous (all models agree) | 154 | 4.1% |
| Strong (≥80% agree) | 624 | 16.5% |
| Split (50–79% agree) | 1,004 | 26.6% |
| Fewer than 8 models active | 1,995 | 52.8% |
What Is the Quality Distribution of the US Market?
The Quality of Company (QOC) score compresses 32 fundamental signals — profitability, margin stability, leverage, cash generation and growth consistency — into a single 0–10 reading, independent of price.
| QOC range | Interpretation | Companies | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0 – 10.0 | Excellent | 1,359 | 36.0% |
| 6.0 – 7.9 | Strong | 1,706 | 45.2% |
| 4.0 – 5.9 | Moderate | 527 | 14.0% |
| 0.0 – 3.9 | Weak | 185 | 4.9% |
How Should This Index Be Interpreted?
CirclFi publishes the limitations of this dataset alongside it, because a statistic whose caveats are hidden is worth less than one whose caveats are known.
It is a gap measurement, not a forecast.
The index reports the distance between price and modelled intrinsic value today. It contains no timing information. A 64.0% overvaluation reading does not imply a correction is imminent, or that one will happen at all.
Intrinsic-value models read conservative in expansions.
All 13 models discount observable cash flows rather than extrapolating growth expectations. During sustained bull markets this structurally produces fair values below market prices across the board. A high market-wide overvaluation share is partly a property of the method, not purely a property of the market — treat the sector ordering as more robust than the absolute level.
Cross-currency listings can distort individual figures.
Companies that report financials in one currency but list in another — chiefly American Depositary Receipts — can produce inflated fair values. Any single company reading beyond roughly +300% implied upside should be treated as a probable data artifact rather than a signal, and CirclFi excludes such values from its ranked lists.
Coverage varies by company, and outliers are removed.
Not every model applies to every company: financials, REITs and pre-revenue companies support fewer of the 13. Companies with fewer than 8 active models carry materially lower confidence. Valuations implying beyond ±500% mispricing are discarded before these statistics are computed, and companies under $1 per share or $50M market capitalisation are excluded from the sample entirely.
It is not investment advice.
CirclFi is an algorithmic research tool. It issues no buy or sell ratings and makes no personalised recommendations. See the full disclaimer.
How to Cite the CirclFi Market Valuation Index
The index is free to cite and reuse with attribution. Because every figure is recalculated after each US market close, cite the date alongside the number. Ready-made forms:
Academic form: CirclFi. (2026). US Market Valuation Index [Data set]. Retrieved 2026-10-07, from https://circlfi.com/research/
Underlying data: per-company valuations for all 3,777 rated equities are published as JSON at /data/valuations.json. Methodology for all 13 models: circlfi.com/methodology.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Index
What share of US stocks are overvalued in 2026?
As of 2026-10-07, 64.0% of the 3,777 US equities CirclFi rates trade above their 13-model median fair value, and 36.0% trade below it. The median US equity sits at an implied -20.1% versus consensus fair value. These figures are recalculated after every US market close.
How does CirclFi calculate the Market Valuation Index?
For each of the 3,777 rated companies, CirclFi takes the median of every valuation model that successfully ran on that company — up to 13 — and compares it to the current market price. The index reports the distribution of those per-company medians across the market. Using the median rather than the mean prevents any single model's outlier from moving a company's classification.
Does a high overvaluation reading mean the market will fall?
No. The index measures the gap between price and modelled intrinsic value at a point in time. It carries no timing information and is not a forecast. Intrinsic-value models systematically read as conservative during sustained expansions, because they discount observable cash flows rather than extrapolating growth. CirclFi publishes the gap; it does not predict when or whether it closes.
Which sector is the most overvalued right now?
Of the 80 US sectors CirclFi rates with at least 15 companies, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials shows the most negative median implied mispricing at -72% across 28 companies as of 2026-10-07. Telecom Services is the cheapest at +39% across 41 companies.
Can I cite or reuse the CirclFi Market Valuation Index?
Yes. The index is free to cite with attribution to CirclFi and a link to https://circlfi.com/research/. Because every figure is recalculated daily, cite the date shown on the page alongside the number. The underlying per-company data is available as JSON at https://circlfi.com/data/valuations.json.
What are the known limitations of this data?
Three material ones. First, companies reporting in a currency other than their listing currency — chiefly ADRs — can produce inflated fair values, so any single company's figure beyond roughly +300% should be treated as a data artifact rather than a signal. Second, valuations beyond ±500% implied mispricing are removed entirely before these statistics are computed. Third, model coverage varies by company: financials and pre-revenue companies support fewer of the 13 models, so a low active-model count means lower confidence.
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