VSE Corporation (VSEC) Fair Value 2026

VSEC · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, VSE Corporation (VSEC) trades at $221.00, versus a $59.12 median fair value across its 8 active models — 73.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VSEC
Price
$221.00
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is VSE Corporation (VSEC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, VSE Corporation (VSEC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $59.12, 73.2% below the current price of $221.00. Estimates range from $3.19 to $317.23. VSEC scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VSEC’s -73.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy VSE Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VSEC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($221.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $60.61 -72.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $83.48 -62.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.85 -82.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.99 -82.8%
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What Is VSEC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.19 to $317.23

CirclFi's 8 active models place VSE Corporation (VSEC) between $3.19 and $317.23 per share, a spread of 531% of the median. The median of that range — $59.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VSEC, against a current price of $221.00.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$3.19median $59.12$317.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.19
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$317.23
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VSEC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VSEC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is VSE Corporation (VSEC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, VSE Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $59.12, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $221.00. With 7 out of 8 models flagging downside (-73.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $317.23 (+43.5%), versus Markov DDM at $3.19 (-98.6%). This +142.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VSEC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for VSEC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VSEC is $59.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VSEC Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, VSEC ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace company, VSE Corporation operates in a sector where aftermarket revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating VSEC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is VSEC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VSEC a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for VSE Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, VSE Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VSEC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VSEC's 8 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy VSE Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

BAThe Boeing CompanyQOC 7.4MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3NPKNational Presto Industries, Inc.QOC 7.4RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.QOC 7.4DCODucommun IncorporatedQOC 7.0ACHRArcher Aviation Inc.QOC 5.6AVEXAEVEX Corp.QOC 3.8RTXRTX CorporationQOC 8.5BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BA · MRCY · NPK · RKLB · KTOS · DCO · ACHR · AVEX · RTX · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VSEC?

7 companies across all industries closest to VSEC’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

BMNMBimini Capital Management, Inc.QOC 7.3CPKChesapeake Utilities CorporationQOC 7.3WGOWinnebago Industries, Inc.QOC 7.3RYZRyerson Holding CorporationQOC 7.3AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.QOC 7.3GDOTGreen Dot CorporationQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BMNM · CPK · WGO · RYZ · AAL · GDOT · NVDA

Where Does VSEC Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

VSEC is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About VSE Corporation’s Valuation?

What is VSE Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts VSE Corporation (VSEC)'s intrinsic value at $59.12 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.19 to $317.23. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VSEC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $221.00, 1 of 8 active models suggest VSEC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $59.12, 73.2% below the current price of $221.00 — a consensus view that VSEC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits VSE Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for VSEC?

VSE Corporation's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VSEC?

CirclFi analyzes VSEC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VSEC?

Of the 8 models currently active on VSEC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $317.23 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.19. CirclFi's published fair value for VSEC is the median of that range, $59.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 531% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VSEC a value trap in 2026?

VSE Corporation's Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, VSE Corporation (VSEC) has a median fair value of $59.12 — 73.2% below the current price of $221.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VSEC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VSEC valuation
  • Financial statements: VSE Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000102752) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VSEC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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