Butler National Corporation (BUKS) Fair Value 2026

BUKS · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Butler National Corporation (BUKS) trades at $4.25, versus a $4.59 median fair value across its 10 active models — 7.9% above the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
BUKS
Price
$4.25
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +14.5% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Butler National Corporation (BUKS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Butler National Corporation (BUKS) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $4.59, within 7.9% of the current price of $4.25. Estimates range from $2.72 to $10.90. BUKS scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BUKS’s +7.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Butler National Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BUKS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.89 -32.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.83 -33.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $4.87 +14.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.72 -36.1%
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What Is BUKS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.72 to $10.90

CirclFi's 10 active models place Butler National Corporation (BUKS) between $2.72 and $10.90 per share, a spread of 178% of the median. The median of that range — $4.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BUKS, against a current price of $4.25.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$2.72median $4.59$10.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$2.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$10.90
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BUKS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BUKS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Butler National Corporation (BUKS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Butler National Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $4.59, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $4.25. While the median implied return is +7.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +192.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $10.90 (+156.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $2.72 (-36.1%). This +192.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Butler National Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BUKS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for BUKS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BUKS is $4.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.89 on its own, implying -32.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BUKS Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, BUKS ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places BUKS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace and defense sector, Butler National Corporation operates in a sector where commercial deliveries is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BUKS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BUKS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BUKS a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Butler National Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Butler National Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 9.4/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +192.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BUKS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BUKS's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Butler National Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

TATTTAT Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.5HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3PRZOParaZero Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.6OPXSOptex Systems Holdings, IncQOC 9.1ESLTElbit Systems Ltd.QOC 2.8DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.QOC 9.0LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0POWWOutdoor Holding CompanyQOC 6.5FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: TATT · HWM · PRZO · OPXS · ESLT · DRS · LMT · POWW · FJET

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BUKS?

7 companies across all industries closest to BUKS’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4NYTThe New York Times CompanyQOC 9.4ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.QOC 9.4ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4EMEEMCOR Group, Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLBD · RMD · NYT · ONTO · ISRG · EME · NVDA

Where Does BUKS Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

BUKS is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Butler National Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Butler National Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Butler National Corporation (BUKS)'s intrinsic value at $4.59 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.72 to $10.90. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BUKS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.25, 6 of 10 active models suggest BUKS may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $4.59, within 7.9% of the current price of $4.25 — a consensus view that BUKS is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Butler National Corporation's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for BUKS?

Butler National Corporation's QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BUKS?

CirclFi analyzes BUKS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BUKS?

Of the 10 models currently active on BUKS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $10.90 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $2.72. CirclFi's published fair value for BUKS is the median of that range, $4.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 178% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BUKS a value trap in 2026?

Butler National Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Butler National Corporation (BUKS) has a median fair value of $4.59 — within 7.9% of the current price of $4.25 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BUKS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BUKS valuation
  • Financial statements: Butler National Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000015847) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BUKS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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