Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Fair Value 2026

FTDR · Personal Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) trades at $82.81, versus a $50.00 median fair value across its 8 active models — 39.6% below the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $66.46.

Key Facts

Ticker
FTDR
Price
$82.81
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $50.00, 39.6% below the current price of $82.81. Estimates range from $13.87 to $79.03. FTDR scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FTDR’s -39.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Frontdoor, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FTDR?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($82.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.46 -19.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.33 -82.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $46.63 -43.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.87 -83.3%
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What Is FTDR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $13.87 to $79.03

CirclFi's 8 active models place Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) between $13.87 and $79.03 per share, a spread of 130% of the median. The median of that range — $50.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FTDR, against a current price of $82.81.

Low · EROICHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$13.87median $50.00$79.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$13.87
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$79.03
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FTDR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FTDR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Frontdoor, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $50.00. Trading at its current price of $82.82, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -39.6%. Notably, Sentiment SOTP sees the most upside at -4.6% (fair value: $79.03), while EROIC is the most conservative at -83.3% ($13.87). The spread between these extremes — +78.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FTDR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for FTDR. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FTDR is $50.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $66.46 on its own, implying -19.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FTDR Rank in Personal Services?

Among 15 Personal Services stocks, FTDR ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places FTDR in the top tier.

Frontdoor, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FTDR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FTDR a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Frontdoor, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Frontdoor, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.2/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +78.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FTDR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FTDR's 8 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Frontdoor, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Personal Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Personal Services stocks with 13-model coverage

EJHE-Home Household Service Holdings LimitedQOC 1.5ROLRollins, Inc.QOC 8.9VGESVanguard Green Investment LimitedQOC 4.1CSVCarriage Services, Inc.QOC 8.8TRNRInteractive Strength Inc.QOC 4.3HRBH&R Block, Inc.QOC 8.5RGSRegis CorporationQOC 6.5DRORDror Ortho-Design, Inc.QOC 4.6

Read investment analysis: EJH · ROL · VGES · CSV · TRNR · HRB · RGS · DROR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FTDR?

7 companies across all industries closest to FTDR’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

VICRVicor CorporationQOC 9.2WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.QOC 9.2RELXRELX PLCQOC 9.2YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.QOC 9.2SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VICR · WHD · TMDX · RELX · YMM · SPOT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Frontdoor, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Frontdoor, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR)'s intrinsic value at $50.00 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.87 to $79.03. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $66.46 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FTDR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $82.81, 0 of 8 active models suggest FTDR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $50.00, 39.6% below the current price of $82.81 — a consensus view that FTDR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Frontdoor, Inc.'s business model in Personal Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for FTDR?

Frontdoor, Inc.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FTDR?

CirclFi analyzes FTDR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FTDR?

Of the 8 models currently active on FTDR, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $79.03 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $13.87. CirclFi's published fair value for FTDR is the median of that range, $50.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 130% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FTDR a value trap in 2026?

Frontdoor, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) has a median fair value of $50.00 — 39.6% below the current price of $82.81 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FTDR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FTDR valuation
  • Financial statements: Frontdoor, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001727263) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FTDR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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