Graham Corporation (GHM) Fair Value 2026

GHM · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Graham Corporation (GHM) trades at $93.38, versus a $15.89 median fair value across its 10 active models — 83.0% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
GHM
Price
$93.38
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Graham Corporation (GHM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Graham Corporation (GHM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $15.89, 83.0% below the current price of $93.38. Estimates range from $2.63 to $82.73. GHM scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GHM’s -83.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Graham Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GHM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.63 -97.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.87 -96.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.52 -81.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.76 -54.2%
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What Is GHM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.63 to $82.73

CirclFi's 10 active models place Graham Corporation (GHM) between $2.63 and $82.73 per share, a spread of 504% of the median. The median of that range — $15.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GHM, against a current price of $93.38.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.63median $15.89$82.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$2.63
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$82.73
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GHM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GHM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Graham Corporation (GHM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graham Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $15.89. Trading at its current price of $93.38, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -83.0%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -11.4% (fair value: $82.73), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -97.2% ($2.63). The spread between these extremes — +85.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GHM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GHM. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for GHM is $15.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.63 on its own, implying -97.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GHM Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, GHM ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places GHM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

The Specialty Industrial Machinery sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Graham Corporation, metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is GHM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GHM a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Graham Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Graham Corporation earns a quality score of 9.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +85.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GHM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GHM's 10 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Graham Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

GTESGates Industrial Corporation Ltd.QOC 9.0AMEAMETEK, Inc.QOC 8.9AOSA. O. Smith CorporationQOC 9.0PNRPentair plcQOC 8.9GGGGraco Inc.QOC 9.1FLSFlowserve CorporationQOC 8.9CRCrane CompanyQOC 8.3BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.1HNOIHNO International, Inc.QOC 4.2EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GTES · AME · AOS · PNR · GGG · FLS · CR · BW · HNOI · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GHM?

7 companies across all industries closest to GHM’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.QOC 9.0GCMGGCM Grosvenor Inc.QOC 9.0CGENCompugen Ltd.QOC 9.0BOOTBoot Barn Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0GASSStealthGas Inc.QOC 9.0CAMTCamtek Ltd.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DRS · GCMG · CGEN · BOOT · GASS · CAMT · NVDA

Where Does GHM Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

GHM is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Graham Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Graham Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Graham Corporation (GHM)'s intrinsic value at $15.89 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.63 to $82.73. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GHM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.38, 0 of 10 active models suggest GHM may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $15.89, 83.0% below the current price of $93.38 — a consensus view that GHM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Graham Corporation's business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for GHM?

Graham Corporation's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GHM?

CirclFi analyzes GHM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GHM?

Of the 10 models currently active on GHM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $82.73 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $2.63. CirclFi's published fair value for GHM is the median of that range, $15.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 504% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GHM a value trap in 2026?

Graham Corporation's Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Graham Corporation (GHM) has a median fair value of $15.89 — 83.0% below the current price of $93.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GHM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GHM valuation
  • Financial statements: Graham Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000716314) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GHM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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