Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Fair Value 2026

ITW · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) trades at $281.67, versus a $139.66 median fair value across its 9 active models — 50.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $97.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
ITW
Price
$281.67
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $139.66, 50.4% below the current price of $281.67. Estimates range from $55.56 to $355.08. ITW scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ITW’s -50.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Illinois Tool Works Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ITW?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($281.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $97.40 -65.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $92.84 -67.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $139.66 -50.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $55.56 -80.3%
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What Is ITW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $55.56 to $355.08

CirclFi's 9 active models place Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) between $55.56 and $355.08 per share, a spread of 214% of the median. The median of that range — $139.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ITW, against a current price of $281.67.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$55.56median $139.66$355.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$55.56
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$355.08
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ITW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ITW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $139.66. Trading at its current price of $281.67, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -50.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +26.1% (fair value: $355.08), while EROIC is the most conservative at -80.3% ($55.56). The spread between these extremes — +106.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ITW?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ITW. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ITW is $139.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $97.40 on its own, implying -65.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ITW Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, ITW ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places ITW in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

The Specialty Industrial Machinery sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Illinois Tool Works Inc., metrics like organic revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ITW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ITW a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Illinois Tool Works Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Illinois Tool Works Inc. earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ITW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ITW's 9 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Illinois Tool Works Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

KAIKadant Inc.QOC 8.7CSWCSW Industrials, Inc.QOC 8.6DOVDover CorporationQOC 8.7SXIStandex International CorporationQOC 8.6ROKRockwell Automation, Inc.QOC 8.7GEVGE Vernova Inc.QOC 8.6MIRMirion Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6OPTTOcean Power Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.8WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: KAI · CSW · DOV · SXI · ROK · GEV · MIR · OPTT · WTS · EPAC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ITW?

7 companies across all industries closest to ITW’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.7HXLHexcel CorporationQOC 8.7HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.QOC 8.7MSBMesabi TrustQOC 8.7NXTNextpower Inc.QOC 8.7EHCEncompass Health CorporationQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TYL · HXL · HLI · MSB · NXT · EHC · NVDA

Where Does ITW Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

ITW is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Illinois Tool Works Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)'s intrinsic value at $139.66 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $55.56 to $355.08. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $97.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ITW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $281.67, 1 of 9 active models suggest ITW may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $139.66, 50.4% below the current price of $281.67 — a consensus view that ITW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for ITW?

Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ITW?

CirclFi analyzes ITW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ITW?

Of the 9 models currently active on ITW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $355.08 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $55.56. CirclFi's published fair value for ITW is the median of that range, $139.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 214% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ITW a value trap in 2026?

Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) has a median fair value of $139.66 — 50.4% below the current price of $281.67 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ITW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ITW valuation
  • Financial statements: Illinois Tool Works Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000049826) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ITW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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