What Is Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $194.87. Trading at $271.58, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.2%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +77.6% (fair value: $482.24), while EROIC is the most conservative at -76.3% ($64.29). The spread between these extremes — +153.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ITW?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ITW. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ITW's intrinsic value at $99.67, implying -63.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ITW Rank in General Industrial Machinery & Equipment?
Among 9 General Industrial Machinery & Equipment stocks, ITW ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places ITW in the top tier.
The General Industrial Machinery & Equipment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Illinois Tool Works Inc., metrics like organic revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is ITW a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ITW. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Illinois Tool Works Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Illinois Tool Works Inc. earns a quality score of 9.4/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +153.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ITW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ITW's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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