The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) Fair Value 2026

MIDD · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) trades at $113.61, versus a $119.62 median fair value across its 12 active models — 5.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $182.64.

Key Facts

Ticker
MIDD
Price
$113.61
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +129.6% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $119.62, within 5.3% of the current price of $113.61. Estimates range from $10.91 to $260.80. MIDD scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MIDD’s +5.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Middleby Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MIDD?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($113.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $182.64 +60.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.91 -90.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $119.67 +5.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $260.80 +129.6%
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What Is MIDD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $10.91 to $260.80

CirclFi's 12 active models place The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) between $10.91 and $260.80 per share, a spread of 209% of the median. The median of that range — $119.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MIDD, against a current price of $113.61.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$10.91median $119.62$260.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$10.91
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$260.80
Model agreement7 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MIDD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MIDD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Middleby Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $119.62. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $113.61 (implied upside of +5.3%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +129.6% (fair value: $260.80), while EPV is the most conservative at -90.4% ($10.91). The spread between these extremes — +220.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MIDD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MIDD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MIDD is $119.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $182.64 on its own, implying +60.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MIDD Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, MIDD ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

The Middleby Corporation's positioning within the Specialty Industrial Machinery segment means that aftermarket revenue mix plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MIDD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MIDD a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for The Middleby Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, The Middleby Corporation earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +220.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MIDD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MIDD's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Middleby Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

SYMSymbotic Inc.QOC 7.3BWENBroadwind, Inc.QOC 7.0LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLCQOC 7.4CEPLCapstone Energy+, Inc.QOC 6.9TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedQOC 7.5HURCHurco Companies, Inc.QOC 6.8SHMDSCHMID Group N.V.QOC 4.7XYLXylem Inc.QOC 9.1FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.QOC 8.5EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: SYM · BWEN · LXFR · CEPL · TWIN · HURC · SHMD · XYL · FELE · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MIDD?

7 companies across all industries closest to MIDD’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

AGNTAGNT, IncQOC 7.3ALRSAlerus Financial CorporationQOC 7.3BRZEBraze, Inc.QOC 7.3YDDLOne and one Green Technologies. IncQOC 7.3CDNACareDx, Inc.QOC 7.3SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AGNT · ALRS · BRZE · YDDL · CDNA · SU · NVDA

Where Does MIDD Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

MIDD is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Middleby Corporation’s Valuation?

What is The Middleby Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Middleby Corporation (MIDD)'s intrinsic value at $119.62 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.91 to $260.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $182.64 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MIDD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $113.61, 7 of 12 active models suggest MIDD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $119.62, within 5.3% of the current price of $113.61 — a consensus view that MIDD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Middleby Corporation's business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for MIDD?

The Middleby Corporation's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MIDD?

CirclFi analyzes MIDD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MIDD?

Of the 12 models currently active on MIDD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $260.80 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $10.91. CirclFi's published fair value for MIDD is the median of that range, $119.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 209% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MIDD a value trap in 2026?

The Middleby Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) has a median fair value of $119.62 — within 5.3% of the current price of $113.61 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MIDD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MIDD valuation
  • Financial statements: The Middleby Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000769520) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MIDD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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