NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Fair Value 2026

NVDA · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) trades at $227.98, versus a $74.70 median fair value across its 9 active models — 67.2% below the current price. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $42.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVDA
Price
$227.98
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 10.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $74.70, 67.2% below the current price of $227.98. Estimates range from $20.03 to $577.62. NVDA scores 10.0/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NVDA’s -67.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NVIDIA Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVDA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($227.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.02 -81.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $74.70 -67.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $148.64 -34.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.35 -89.8%
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What Is NVDA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $20.03 to $577.62

CirclFi's 9 active models place NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) between $20.03 and $577.62 per share, a spread of 746% of the median. The median of that range — $74.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NVDA, against a current price of $227.98.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$20.03median $74.70$577.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$20.03
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$577.62
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NVDA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NVDA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NVIDIA Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $74.70, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $227.98. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-67.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $577.62 (+153.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $20.03 (-91.2%). This +244.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NVIDIA Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NVDA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NVDA. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NVDA is $74.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $42.02 on its own, implying -81.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVDA Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, NVDA ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places NVDA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

Within the Semiconductors space, NVIDIA Corporation competes in an environment where gross margin trajectory often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NVDA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVDA a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for NVIDIA Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, NVIDIA Corporation is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +244.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVDA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVDA's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NVIDIA Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

LAESSEALSQ CorpQOC 1.9AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8VLNValens Semiconductor Ltd.QOC 2.1CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdQOC 9.6POETPOET Technologies Inc.QOC 2.3MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 9.5TXNTexas Instruments IncorporatedQOC 8.2MRAMEverspin Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.9PXLWPixelworks, Inc.QOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: LAES · AVGO · VLN · CRDO · POET · MPWR · TXN · MRAM · PXLW

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVDA?

6 companies across all industries closest to NVDA’s Quality of Company score of 10.0/10.

DUKUDuke Energy CorporationQOC —HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9AKANAkanda Corp.QOC 1.3ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8SXTCChina SXT Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 1.4KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: DUKU · HCI · AKAN · ADSK · SXTC · KLAC

Where Does NVDA Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

NVDA is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NVIDIA Corporation’s Valuation?

What is NVIDIA Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)'s intrinsic value at $74.70 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $20.03 to $577.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $42.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVDA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $227.98, 1 of 9 active models suggest NVDA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $74.70, 67.2% below the current price of $227.98 — a consensus view that NVDA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NVIDIA Corporation's business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for NVDA?

NVIDIA Corporation's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVDA?

CirclFi analyzes NVDA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NVDA?

Of the 9 models currently active on NVDA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $577.62 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $20.03. CirclFi's published fair value for NVDA is the median of that range, $74.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 746% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NVDA a value trap in 2026?

NVIDIA Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has a median fair value of $74.70 — 67.2% below the current price of $227.98 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVDA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVDA valuation
  • Financial statements: NVIDIA Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001045810) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVDA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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