NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Fair Value 2026

NXPI · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) trades at $225.86, versus a $83.64 median fair value across its 10 active models — 63.0% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $78.87.

Key Facts

Ticker
NXPI
Price
$225.86
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +56.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $83.64, 63.0% below the current price of $225.86. Estimates range from $38.63 to $796.18. NXPI scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NXPI’s -63.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NXP Semiconductors N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NXPI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($225.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $78.87 -65.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.63 -82.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $115.51 -48.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $354.32 +56.9%
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What Is NXPI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $38.63 to $796.18

CirclFi's 10 active models place NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) between $38.63 and $796.18 per share, a spread of 906% of the median. The median of that range — $83.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NXPI, against a current price of $225.86.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$38.63median $83.64$796.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$38.63
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$796.18
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NXPI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NXPI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on NXP Semiconductors N.V. at its current price of $225.86. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $83.64 (-63.0% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +252.5% (fair value: $796.18), while EPV is the most conservative at -82.9% ($38.63). The spread between these extremes — +335.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NXPI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NXPI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NXPI is $83.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $78.87 on its own, implying -65.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NXPI Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, NXPI ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places NXPI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

As a chip maker, NXP Semiconductors N.V. operates in a sector where inventory days is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NXPI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NXPI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NXPI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for NXP Semiconductors N.V.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.5/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +335.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NXPI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NXPI's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NXP Semiconductors N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 9.5TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedQOC 9.2CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdQOC 9.6MUMicron Technology, Inc.QOC 9.1ONON Semiconductor CorporationQOC 7.8ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc.QOC 6.8GCTSGCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.QOC 4.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: CRUS · RMBS · MPWR · TSM · CRDO · MU · ON · ALGM · GCTS · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NXPI?

6 companies across all industries closest to NXPI’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

UVEUniversal Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5APPAppLovin CorporationQOC 9.5HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: UVE · APP · HQY · STRL · PLMR · IDXX

Where Does NXPI Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

NXPI is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NXP Semiconductors N.V.’s Valuation?

What is NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI)'s intrinsic value at $83.64 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $38.63 to $796.18. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $78.87 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NXPI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $225.86, 3 of 10 active models suggest NXPI may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $83.64, 63.0% below the current price of $225.86 — a consensus view that NXPI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for NXPI?

NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NXPI?

CirclFi analyzes NXPI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NXPI?

Of the 10 models currently active on NXPI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $796.18 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $38.63. CirclFi's published fair value for NXPI is the median of that range, $83.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 906% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NXPI a value trap in 2026?

NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) has a median fair value of $83.64 — 63.0% below the current price of $225.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NXPI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NXPI valuation
  • Financial statements: NXP Semiconductors N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001413447) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NXPI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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