Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Fair Value 2026

DECK · Footwear & Accessories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) trades at $86.33, versus a $114.55 median fair value across its 10 active models — 32.7% above the current price. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $144.51.

Key Facts

Ticker
DECK
Price
$86.33
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +77.4% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $114.55, 32.7% above the current price of $86.33. Estimates range from $55.15 to $191.28. DECK scores 9.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DECK’s +32.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Deckers Outdoor Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DECK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($86.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $144.51 +67.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $73.93 -14.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $112.19 +30.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $153.17 +77.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is DECK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $55.15 to $191.28

CirclFi's 10 active models place Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) between $55.15 and $191.28 per share, a spread of 119% of the median. The median of that range — $114.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DECK, against a current price of $86.33.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$55.15median $114.55$191.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$55.15
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$191.28
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DECK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DECK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Deckers Outdoor Corporation. Trading at $86.33 against an estimated intrinsic value of $114.55, 8 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +32.7% at the median. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $191.28 (+121.6%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $55.15 (-36.1%). This +157.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Deckers Outdoor Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DECK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DECK. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DECK is $114.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $144.51 on its own, implying +67.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DECK Rank in Footwear & Accessories?

Among 16 Footwear & Accessories stocks, DECK ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places DECK in the top tier.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DECK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DECK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Deckers Outdoor Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Deckers Outdoor Corporation is rated at 9.6/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +157.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DECK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DECK's 10 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Deckers Outdoor Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Footwear & Accessories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Footwear & Accessories stocks with 13-model coverage

FMFCKandal M Venture LimitedQOC 2.5ONONOn Holding AGQOC 8.5GRNLGreenlite Ventures Inc.QOC 2.9NKENIKE, Inc.QOC 8.3FWDIForward Industries, Inc.QOC 4.8WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.QOC 8.3SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd.QOC 8.3BIRKBirkenstock Holding plcQOC 7.6AREBAmerican Rebel Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: FMFC · ONON · GRNL · NKE · FWDI · WWW · SHOO · BIRK · AREB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DECK?

7 companies across all industries closest to DECK’s Quality of Company score of 9.6/10.

DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6NVMINova Ltd.QOC 9.6EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationQOC 9.6MRKMerck & Co., Inc.QOC 9.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DOCS · POWL · NVMI · EXEL · PCTY · MRK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Deckers Outdoor Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Deckers Outdoor Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)'s intrinsic value at $114.55 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $55.15 to $191.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $144.51 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DECK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $86.33, 8 of 10 active models suggest DECK may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $114.55, 32.7% above the current price of $86.33 — a consensus view that DECK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Deckers Outdoor Corporation's business model in Footwear & Accessories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for DECK?

Deckers Outdoor Corporation's QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DECK?

CirclFi analyzes DECK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DECK?

Of the 10 models currently active on DECK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $191.28 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $55.15. CirclFi's published fair value for DECK is the median of that range, $114.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 119% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DECK a value trap in 2026?

Deckers Outdoor Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) has a median fair value of $114.55 — 32.7% above the current price of $86.33 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DECK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DECK valuation
  • Financial statements: Deckers Outdoor Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000910521) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DECK as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on DECK.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for DECK Unlock All 10 — $39/mo