What Is Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fossil Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.95, suggesting a +122.1% average upside from the current price of $4.03. While 9 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $23.19 (+475.4%), versus ML-RIV at $0.35 (-91.3%). This +566.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About FOSL?
13 of 13 models are currently active for FOSL. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FOSL's intrinsic value at $7.44, implying +84.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does FOSL Rank in Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts?
Among 2 Watches, Clocks, Clockwork Operated Devices/Parts stocks, FOSL ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.
Fossil Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is FOSL a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FOSL a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Fossil Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fossil Group, Inc. scores 5.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +566.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every FOSL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across FOSL's 13 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
Buy with Gumroad