Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Fair Value 2026

FOSL · Footwear & Accessories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) trades at $5.35, versus a $6.55 median fair value across its 2 active models — 22.4% above the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FOSL
Price
$5.35
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +50.0% upside with 34% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $6.55, 22.4% above the current price of $5.35. Estimates range from $5.07 to $8.02. FOSL scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FOSL’s +22.4% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Fossil Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FOSL?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $8.02 +50.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $5.07 -5.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fossil Group, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $5.35. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $6.55 (+22.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $8.02 (+50.0%), versus FTNN at $5.07 (-5.3%). This +55.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FOSL?

2 of 13 models are currently active for FOSL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FOSL is $6.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FOSL Rank in Footwear & Accessories?

Among 16 Footwear & Accessories stocks, FOSL ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Fossil Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FOSL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FOSL a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Fossil Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fossil Group, Inc. scores 5.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +55.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FOSL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FOSL's 2 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Fossil Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Footwear & Accessories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Footwear & Accessories stocks with 13-model coverage

DBIDesigner Brands Inc.QOC 6.5VRAVera Bradley, Inc.QOC 5.5BIRKBirkenstock Holding plcQOC 7.6AREBAmerican Rebel Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.8RCKYRocky Brands, Inc.QOC 7.8FWDIForward Industries, Inc.QOC 4.8GRNLGreenlite Ventures Inc.QOC 2.9NKENIKE, Inc.QOC 8.3CROXCrocs, Inc.QOC 7.9DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 9.6ONONOn Holding AGQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: DBI · VRA · BIRK · AREB · RCKY · FWDI · GRNL · NKE · CROX · DECK · ONON

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FOSL?

7 companies across all industries closest to FOSL’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

GBCSSelectis Health, Inc.QOC 5.9BDNBrandywine Realty TrustQOC 5.9QUBTQuantum Computing Inc.QOC 5.9LFCRLifecore Biomedical, Inc.QOC 5.9TYGOTigo Energy, Inc.QOC 5.9PRGOPerrigo Company plcQOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GBCS · BDN · QUBT · LFCR · TYGO · PRGO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Fossil Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Fossil Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)'s intrinsic value at $6.55 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.07 to $8.02. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FOSL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.35, 1 of 2 active models suggest FOSL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $6.55, 22.4% above the current price of $5.35 — a consensus view that FOSL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Fossil Group, Inc.'s business model in Footwear & Accessories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for FOSL?

Fossil Group, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FOSL?

CirclFi analyzes FOSL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FOSL a value trap in 2026?

Fossil Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) has a median fair value of $6.55 — 22.4% above the current price of $5.35 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FOSL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FOSL valuation
  • Financial statements: Fossil Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000883569) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FOSL as of ; valuations recomputed .