Nike, Inc. (NKE) Fair Value 2026

NKE · Rubber & Plastics Footwear ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Nike, Inc. (NKE) trades at $43.78, approximately 8% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $47.64. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NKE
Price
$43.78
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +12.7% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $47.64 +8.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $32.14 -26.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $38.90 -11.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $49.33 +12.7%

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What Is Nike, Inc. (NKE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nike, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $40.55. Trading at $43.78, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -7.4%), as 9 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $96.40 (+120.2%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $13.69 (-68.7%). This +188.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nike, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NKE?

13 of 13 models are currently active for NKE. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NKE's intrinsic value at $47.64, implying +8.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NKE Rank in Rubber & Plastics Footwear?

Among 4 Rubber & Plastics Footwear stocks, NKE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places NKE in the top tier.

Nike, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NKE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NKE a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Nike, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nike, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NKE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NKE's 13 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nike, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rubber & Plastics Footwear Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Rubber & Plastics Footwear stocks with 13-model coverage

DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 10.0CROXCrocs, Inc.QOC 8.7ONONOn Holding AGQOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: DECK · CROX · ONON

Frequently Asked Questions About Nike, Inc.

What is Nike, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nike, Inc. (NKE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $47.64. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NKE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.78, 4 of 13 active models suggest NKE may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nike, Inc.'s business model in Rubber & Plastics Footwear.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for NKE?

Nike, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NKE?

CirclFi analyzes NKE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NKE a value trap in 2026?

Nike, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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