On Holding AG (ONON) Fair Value 2026

ONON · Footwear & Accessories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, On Holding AG (ONON) trades at $28.95, versus a $14.02 median fair value across its 9 active models — 51.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONON
Price
$28.95
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is On Holding AG (ONON) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, On Holding AG (ONON) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $14.02, 51.6% below the current price of $28.95. Estimates range from $6.56 to $31.81. ONON scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ONON’s -51.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy On Holding AG Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ONON?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.19 -57.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.02 -51.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $22.00 -24.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.69 -70.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including ML-RIV, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ONON's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.56 to $31.81

CirclFi's 9 active models place On Holding AG (ONON) between $6.56 and $31.81 per share, a spread of 180% of the median. The median of that range — $14.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ONON, against a current price of $28.95.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$6.56median $14.02$31.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.56
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$31.81
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ONON. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ONON, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is On Holding AG (ONON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, On Holding AG's intrinsic value is estimated at $14.02. Trading at its current price of $28.95, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -51.6%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $31.81 (+9.9%), versus ML-RIV at $6.56 (-77.4%). This +87.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ONON?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ONON. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ONON is $14.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.19 on its own, implying -57.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONON Rank in Footwear & Accessories?

Among 16 Footwear & Accessories stocks, ONON ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ONON in the top tier.

On Holding AG operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ONON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONON a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for On Holding AG. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, On Holding AG scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +87.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONON's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy On Holding AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Footwear & Accessories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Footwear & Accessories stocks with 13-model coverage

DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 9.6NKENIKE, Inc.QOC 8.3FMFCKandal M Venture LimitedQOC 2.5WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.QOC 8.3GRNLGreenlite Ventures Inc.QOC 2.9SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd.QOC 8.3WEYSWeyco Group, Inc.QOC 7.9DBIDesigner Brands Inc.QOC 6.5FWDIForward Industries, Inc.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: DECK · NKE · FMFC · WWW · GRNL · SHOO · WEYS · DBI · FWDI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ONON?

7 companies across all industries closest to ONON’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

DMCDel Monte CorporationQOC 8.5INSWInternational Seaways, Inc.QOC 8.5REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.5CARTMaplebear Inc.QOC 8.5CBNKCapital Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.5SMPLThe Simply Good Foods CompanyQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DMC · INSW · REGN · CART · CBNK · SMPL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About On Holding AG’s Valuation?

What is On Holding AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts On Holding AG (ONON)'s intrinsic value at $14.02 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.56 to $31.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.95, 1 of 9 active models suggest ONON may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $14.02, 51.6% below the current price of $28.95 — a consensus view that ONON is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits On Holding AG's business model in Footwear & Accessories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ONON?

On Holding AG's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONON?

CirclFi analyzes ONON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ONON?

Of the 9 models currently active on ONON, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $31.81 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.56. CirclFi's published fair value for ONON is the median of that range, $14.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 180% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ONON a value trap in 2026?

On Holding AG's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, On Holding AG (ONON) has a median fair value of $14.02 — 51.6% below the current price of $28.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ONON valuation
  • Financial statements: On Holding AG 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001858985) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ONON as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ONON.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

5 models hidden for ONON Unlock All 9 — $39/mo