Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA) Fair Value 2026

VRA · Leather & Leather Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA) trades at $3.80, approximately 67% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.48. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VRA
Price
$3.80
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +202.2% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $11.48 +202.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $4.94 +30.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $5.37 +41.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $0.72 -81.2%

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What Is Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vera Bradley, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.83, suggesting a +53.5% average upside from the current price of $3.80. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $17.77 (+367.7%), versus Markov DDM at $0.54 (-85.8%). This +453.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VRA?

13 of 13 models are currently active for VRA. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates VRA's intrinsic value at $11.48, implying +202.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VRA Rank in Leather & Leather Products?

Among 5 Leather & Leather Products stocks, VRA ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Vera Bradley, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is VRA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VRA a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Vera Bradley, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Vera Bradley, Inc. is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +453.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VRA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VRA's 13 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vera Bradley, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leather & Leather Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Leather & Leather Products stocks with 13-model coverage

TPRTapestry, Inc.QOC 9.6TLFTandy Leather Factory, Inc.QOC 7.4CPRICapri Holdings LimitedQOC 7.2FMFCKandal M Venture LimitedQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: TPR · TLF · CPRI · FMFC

Frequently Asked Questions About Vera Bradley, Inc.

What is Vera Bradley, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $11.48. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VRA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.80, 9 of 13 active models suggest VRA may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vera Bradley, Inc.'s business model in Leather & Leather Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for VRA?

Vera Bradley, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VRA?

CirclFi analyzes VRA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VRA a value trap in 2026?

Vera Bradley, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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