Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) Fair Value 2026

TLF · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) trades at $2.53, versus a $6.73 median fair value across its 7 active models — 165.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
TLF
Price
$2.53
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +192.5% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $6.73, 165.7% above the current price of $2.53. Estimates range from $0.16 to $12.13. TLF scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TLF’s +165.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -5.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TLF?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.02 -59.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.41 +192.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.11 -16.8%
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What Is TLF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.16 to $12.13

CirclFi's 7 active models place Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) between $0.16 and $12.13 per share, a spread of 178% of the median. The median of that range — $6.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TLF, against a current price of $2.53.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.16median $6.73$12.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.16
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$12.13
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TLF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TLF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.73, suggesting a +165.7% median upside from the current price of $2.53. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $12.13 (+378.8%), versus ML-RIV at $0.16 (-93.8%). This +472.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TLF?

7 of 13 models are currently active for TLF. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TLF is $6.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.02 on its own, implying -59.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TLF Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 48 Specialty Retail stocks, TLF ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Retail segment means that inventory turnover plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TLF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TLF a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +472.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TLF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TLF's 7 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

RECTRectitude Holdings LtdQOC 7.2BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc.QOC 6.9SVVSavers Value Village, Inc.QOC 7.2HZOMarineMax, Inc.QOC 6.8GMEGameStop Corp.QOC 7.4WOOFPetco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.QOC 6.4JBDIJBDI Holdings LimitedQOC 5.8PTLEPTL LimitedQOC 2.7BWMXBetterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V.QOC 8.4WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: RECT · BNED · SVV · HZO · GME · WOOF · JBDI · PTLE · BWMX · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TLF?

7 companies across all industries closest to TLF’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

STSensata Technologies Holding plcQOC 7.1IARTIntegra LifeSciences Holdings CorporationQOC 7.1TIPTTiptree Inc.QOC 7.2PHGKoninklijke Philips N.V.QOC 7.1ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2MCHBMechanics BancorpQOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ST · IART · TIPT · PHG · ARCT · MCHB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF)'s intrinsic value at $6.73 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.16 to $12.13. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TLF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.53, 4 of 7 active models suggest TLF may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $6.73, 165.7% above the current price of $2.53 — a consensus view that TLF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for TLF?

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TLF?

CirclFi analyzes TLF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TLF?

Of the 7 models currently active on TLF, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $12.13 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.16. CirclFi's published fair value for TLF is the median of that range, $6.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 178% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TLF a value trap in 2026?

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. (TLF) has a median fair value of $6.73 — 165.7% above the current price of $2.53 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TLF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TLF valuation
  • Financial statements: Tandy Leather Factory, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000909724) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TLF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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