Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Fair Value 2026

SHOO · Footwear & Accessories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) trades at $44.69, versus a $15.46 median fair value across its 11 active models — 65.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.46.

Key Facts

Ticker
SHOO
Price
$44.69
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $15.46, 65.4% below the current price of $44.69. Estimates range from $7.65 to $57.23. SHOO scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SHOO’s -65.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Steven Madden, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SHOO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($44.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.46 -65.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.81 -66.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.08 -61.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $31.79 -28.9%
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What Is SHOO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $7.65 to $57.23

CirclFi's 11 active models place Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) between $7.65 and $57.23 per share, a spread of 321% of the median. The median of that range — $15.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SHOO, against a current price of $44.69.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$7.65median $15.46$57.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$7.65
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$57.23
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SHOO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SHOO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Steven Madden, Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.46, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $44.69. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-65.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +28.1% (fair value: $57.23), while EROIC is the most conservative at -82.9% ($7.65). The spread between these extremes — +110.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SHOO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SHOO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SHOO is $15.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.46 on its own, implying -65.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SHOO Rank in Footwear & Accessories?

Among 16 Footwear & Accessories stocks, SHOO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places SHOO in the top tier.

Steven Madden, Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SHOO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SHOO a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Steven Madden, Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Steven Madden, Ltd. is rated at 8.3/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SHOO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SHOO's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Steven Madden, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Footwear & Accessories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Footwear & Accessories stocks with 13-model coverage

WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.QOC 8.3WEYSWeyco Group, Inc.QOC 7.9NKENIKE, Inc.QOC 8.3CROXCrocs, Inc.QOC 7.9ONONOn Holding AGQOC 8.5RCKYRocky Brands, Inc.QOC 7.8BIRKBirkenstock Holding plcQOC 7.6AREBAmerican Rebel Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.8DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: WWW · WEYS · NKE · CROX · ONON · RCKY · BIRK · AREB · DECK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SHOO?

7 companies across all industries closest to SHOO’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

FISVFiserv, Inc.QOC 8.3BBBlackBerry LimitedQOC 8.3DASHDoorDash, Inc.QOC 8.3SSNCSS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3SLDESlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3LEUCentrus Energy Corp.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FISV · BB · DASH · SSNC · SLDE · LEU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Steven Madden, Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Steven Madden, Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)'s intrinsic value at $15.46 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.65 to $57.23. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.46 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SHOO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $44.69, 1 of 11 active models suggest SHOO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $15.46, 65.4% below the current price of $44.69 — a consensus view that SHOO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Steven Madden, Ltd.'s business model in Footwear & Accessories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for SHOO?

Steven Madden, Ltd.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SHOO?

CirclFi analyzes SHOO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SHOO?

Of the 11 models currently active on SHOO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $57.23 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $7.65. CirclFi's published fair value for SHOO is the median of that range, $15.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 321% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SHOO a value trap in 2026?

Steven Madden, Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) has a median fair value of $15.46 — 65.4% below the current price of $44.69 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SHOO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SHOO valuation
  • Financial statements: Steven Madden, Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000913241) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SHOO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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