SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) Fair Value 2026

SPNT · Insurance - Reinsurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) trades at $24.18, versus a $32.80 median fair value across its 5 active models — 35.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPNT
Price
$24.18
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +124.3% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $32.80, 35.7% above the current price of $24.18. Estimates range from $17.99 to $54.24. SPNT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SPNT’s +35.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SiriusPoint Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPNT?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.80 +35.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.24 +124.3%
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What Is SPNT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $17.99 to $54.24

CirclFi's 5 active models place SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) between $17.99 and $54.24 per share, a spread of 111% of the median. The median of that range — $32.80 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPNT, against a current price of $24.18.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$17.99median $32.80$54.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$17.99
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$54.24
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SPNT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPNT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SiriusPoint Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $32.80. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $24.18 (implied upside of +35.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 3 of 5 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +124.3% (fair value: $54.24), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -25.6% ($17.99). The spread between these extremes — +149.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SPNT?

5 of 13 models are currently active for SPNT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SPNT is $32.80 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPNT Rank in Insurance - Reinsurance?

Among 8 Insurance - Reinsurance stocks, SPNT ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places SPNT in the top tier.

As a underwriting business, SiriusPoint Ltd. operates in a sector where loss ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SPNT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SPNT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPNT a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for SiriusPoint Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, SiriusPoint Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +149.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPNT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPNT's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SiriusPoint Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Reinsurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Insurance - Reinsurance stocks with 13-model coverage

RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.4GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd.QOC 9.1HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0EGEverest Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0RGAReinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedQOC 8.7KGKestrel Group LtdQOC 6.8OXBROxbridge Re Holdings LimitedQOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: RNR · GLRE · HG · EG · RGA · KG · OXBR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPNT?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPNT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

RRBIRed River Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.2BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd.QOC 8.2CCBCoastal Financial CorporationQOC 8.2PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.QOC 8.2RHPRyman Hospitality Properties, Inc.QOC 8.2VALValaris LimitedQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RRBI · BWMN · CCB · PNC · RHP · VAL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About SiriusPoint Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is SiriusPoint Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT)'s intrinsic value at $32.80 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $17.99 to $54.24. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPNT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.18, 3 of 5 active models suggest SPNT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $32.80, 35.7% above the current price of $24.18 — a consensus view that SPNT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SiriusPoint Ltd.'s business model in Insurance - Reinsurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for SPNT?

SiriusPoint Ltd.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPNT?

CirclFi analyzes SPNT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPNT?

Of the 5 models currently active on SPNT, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $54.24 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $17.99. CirclFi's published fair value for SPNT is the median of that range, $32.80, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 111% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPNT a value trap in 2026?

SiriusPoint Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT) has a median fair value of $32.80 — 35.7% above the current price of $24.18 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPNT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPNT valuation
  • Financial statements: SiriusPoint Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001576018) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPNT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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