Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Fair Value 2026

HG · Insurance - Reinsurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) trades at $35.27, versus a $57.30 median fair value across its 5 active models — 62.5% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HG
Price
$35.27
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +314.2% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $57.30, 62.5% above the current price of $35.27. Estimates range from $30.68 to $146.09. HG scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HG’s +62.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HG?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $71.90 +103.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $146.09 +314.2%
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What Is HG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $30.68 to $146.09

CirclFi's 5 active models place Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) between $30.68 and $146.09 per share, a spread of 201% of the median. The median of that range — $57.30 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HG, against a current price of $35.27.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$30.68median $57.30$146.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$30.68
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$146.09
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $35.27. Based on our 13-model framework, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $57.30 — representing +62.5% implied upside — with 4 out of 5 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $146.09 (+314.2%), versus Regime Cross at $30.68 (-13.0%). This +327.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HG?

5 of 13 models are currently active for HG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HG is $57.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HG Rank in Insurance - Reinsurance?

Among 8 Insurance - Reinsurance stocks, HG ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places HG in the top tier.

As a risk-bearing enterprise, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. operates in a sector where expense ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HG should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HG a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +327.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HG's 5 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Reinsurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Insurance - Reinsurance stocks with 13-model coverage

RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.QOC 9.4GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd.QOC 9.1EGEverest Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0RGAReinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedQOC 8.7SPNTSiriusPoint Ltd.QOC 8.2KGKestrel Group LtdQOC 6.8OXBROxbridge Re Holdings LimitedQOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: RNR · GLRE · EG · RGA · SPNT · KG · OXBR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HG?

7 companies across all industries closest to HG’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

JNJJohnson & JohnsonQOC 9.0PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0OSPNOneSpan Inc.QOC 9.0INTUIntuit Inc.QOC 9.0ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0LULUlululemon athletica inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JNJ · PPC · OSPN · INTU · EC · LULU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG)'s intrinsic value at $57.30 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $30.68 to $146.09. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.27, 4 of 5 active models suggest HG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $57.30, 62.5% above the current price of $35.27 — a consensus view that HG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s business model in Insurance - Reinsurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for HG?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HG?

CirclFi analyzes HG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HG?

Of the 5 models currently active on HG, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $146.09 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $30.68. CirclFi's published fair value for HG is the median of that range, $57.30, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 201% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HG a value trap in 2026?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) has a median fair value of $57.30 — 62.5% above the current price of $35.27 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HG valuation
  • Financial statements: Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001593275) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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