The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Fair Value 2026

PGR · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) trades at $217.65, versus a $151.06 median fair value across its 6 active models — 30.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PGR
Price
$217.65
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $151.06, 30.6% below the current price of $217.65. Estimates range from $8.64 to $412.17. PGR scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PGR’s -30.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Progressive Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PGR?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($217.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $153.08 -29.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $149.03 -31.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.64 -96.0%
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What Is PGR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $8.64 to $412.17

CirclFi's 6 active models place The Progressive Corporation (PGR) between $8.64 and $412.17 per share, a spread of 267% of the median. The median of that range — $151.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PGR, against a current price of $217.65.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$8.64median $151.06$412.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$8.64
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$412.17
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PGR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PGR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Progressive Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $151.06, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $217.65. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-30.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $412.17 (+89.4%), versus Markov DDM at $8.64 (-96.0%). This +185.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PGR?

6 of 13 models are currently active for PGR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PGR is $151.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PGR Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, PGR ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places PGR in the top tier.

Within the Insurance - Property & Casualty space, The Progressive Corporation competes in an environment where reserve adequacy often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PGR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PGR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for The Progressive Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The Progressive Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +185.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PGR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PGR's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Progressive Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance CorporationQOC 8.8AIZAssurant, Inc.QOC 8.9THGThe Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.8MKLMarkel Group Inc.QOC 9.0MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7ASICAtegrity Specialty Insurance CoQOC 8.3HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporationQOC 7.7KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CINF · ACIC · AIZ · THG · MKL · MCY · ASIC · HMN · KNSL · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PGR?

7 companies across all industries closest to PGR’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions CorporationQOC 8.8TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8SESea LimitedQOC 8.8NWFLNorwood Financial Corp.QOC 8.8TASKTaskUs, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CELH · CTSH · TCBI · SE · NWFL · TASK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Progressive Corporation’s Valuation?

What is The Progressive Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Progressive Corporation (PGR)'s intrinsic value at $151.06 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.64 to $412.17. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PGR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $217.65, 1 of 6 active models suggest PGR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $151.06, 30.6% below the current price of $217.65 — a consensus view that PGR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Progressive Corporation's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for PGR?

The Progressive Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PGR?

CirclFi analyzes PGR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PGR?

Of the 6 models currently active on PGR, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $412.17 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $8.64. CirclFi's published fair value for PGR is the median of that range, $151.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 267% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PGR a value trap in 2026?

The Progressive Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has a median fair value of $151.06 — 30.6% below the current price of $217.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PGR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PGR valuation
  • Financial statements: The Progressive Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000080661) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PGR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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