Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Fair Value 2026

GWRE · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) trades at $140.28, approximately 822% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $15.22. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GWRE
Price
$140.28
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($140.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$15.22 -89.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$14.67 -89.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$28.90 -79.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$19.84 -85.9%

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What Is Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Guidewire Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $35.90, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $140.28. With 13 out of 13 models flagging downside (-74.4% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $107.23 (-23.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $5.52 (-96.1%). This +72.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Guidewire Software, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GWRE?

13 of 13 models are currently active for GWRE. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates GWRE's intrinsic value at $15.22, implying -89.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GWRE Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, GWRE ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places GWRE in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →

As a technology sector, Guidewire Software, Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin profile is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating GWRE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is GWRE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GWRE a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Guidewire Software, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Guidewire Software, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +72.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GWRE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GWRE's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Guidewire Software, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Guidewire Software, Inc.

What is Guidewire Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $15.22. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GWRE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $140.28, 0 of 13 active models suggest GWRE may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Guidewire Software, Inc.'s business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for GWRE?

Guidewire Software, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GWRE?

CirclFi analyzes GWRE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GWRE a value trap in 2026?

Guidewire Software, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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