PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) Fair Value 2026

PD · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) trades at $12.63, versus a $13.68 median fair value across its 10 active models — 8.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
PD
Price
$12.63
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +41.8% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $13.68, within 8.3% of the current price of $12.63. Estimates range from $3.88 to $30.64. PD scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PD’s +8.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy PagerDuty, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.91 +41.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.75 +8.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $4.24 -66.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.29 -42.3%
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What Is PD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.88 to $30.64

CirclFi's 10 active models place PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) between $3.88 and $30.64 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $13.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PD, against a current price of $12.63.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Markov DDM
$3.88median $13.68$30.64
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$3.88
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$30.64
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PagerDuty, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.68. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $12.63 (implied upside of +8.3%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 10 bullish models. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +142.6% (fair value: $30.64), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -69.3% ($3.88). The spread between these extremes — +211.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PD is $13.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.91 on its own, implying +41.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PD Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, PD ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places PD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

PagerDuty, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that free cash flow margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including total addressable market (TAM) expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PD a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for PagerDuty, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, PagerDuty, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +211.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PD's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PagerDuty, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

SAPSAP SEQOC 8.9RMNIRimini Street, Inc.QOC 8.8DUOLDuolingo, Inc.QOC 8.9BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.QOC 8.8SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.QOC 8.9QTWOQ2 Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8SNOWSnowflake Inc.QOC 7.3AMSTAmesite Inc.QOC 5.9AUUDAuddia Inc.QOC 3.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: SAP · RMNI · DUOL · BLKB · SPSC · QTWO · SNOW · AMST · AUUD · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PD?

7 companies across all industries closest to PD’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

ORRFOrrstown Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.8AYIAcuity Inc.QOC 8.8OSISOSI Systems, Inc.QOC 8.8NWFLNorwood Financial Corp.QOC 8.8TCBXThird Coast Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ORRF · AYI · OSIS · NWFL · TCBX · TCBI · NVDA

Where Does PD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

PD is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About PagerDuty, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is PagerDuty, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts PagerDuty, Inc. (PD)'s intrinsic value at $13.68 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.88 to $30.64. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.63, 6 of 10 active models suggest PD may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $13.68, within 8.3% of the current price of $12.63 — a consensus view that PD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PagerDuty, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for PD?

PagerDuty, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PD?

CirclFi analyzes PD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PD?

Of the 10 models currently active on PD, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $30.64 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $3.88. CirclFi's published fair value for PD is the median of that range, $13.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PD a value trap in 2026?

PagerDuty, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) has a median fair value of $13.68 — within 8.3% of the current price of $12.63 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PD valuation
  • Financial statements: PagerDuty, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001568100) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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