Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Fair Value 2026

BOOT · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) trades at $155.62, versus a $80.67 median fair value across its 9 active models — 48.2% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BOOT
Price
$155.62
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +11.2% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $80.67, 48.2% below the current price of $155.62. Estimates range from $15.96 to $173.02. BOOT scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BOOT’s -48.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +4.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BOOT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($155.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.26 -72.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $80.67 -48.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $173.02 +11.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.89 -71.2%
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What Is BOOT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $15.96 to $173.02

CirclFi's 9 active models place Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) between $15.96 and $173.02 per share, a spread of 195% of the median. The median of that range — $80.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BOOT, against a current price of $155.62.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · First Chicago
$15.96median $80.67$173.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$15.96
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$173.02
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BOOT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BOOT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $80.67. Trading at its current price of $155.62, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -48.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $173.02 (+11.2%), versus RCMH-DCF at $15.96 (-89.7%). This +100.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BOOT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for BOOT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BOOT is $80.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BOOT Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 34 Apparel Retail stocks, BOOT ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places BOOT in the top tier.

The Apparel Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., metrics like brand equity index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BOOT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BOOT a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +100.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BOOT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BOOT's 9 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

LULUlululemon athletica inc.QOC 9.0TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2IVDNInnovative Designs, Inc.QOC 8.5SHOEShoe Station Group Inc.QOC 7.9BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0JEM707 Cayman Holdings LimitedQOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: LULU · TJX · ANF · URBN · BKE · IVDN · SHOE · BRIA · JEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BOOT?

7 companies across all industries closest to BOOT’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

GCMGGCM Grosvenor Inc.QOC 9.0CAMTCamtek Ltd.QOC 9.0GHMGraham CorporationQOC 9.0WDFCWD-40 CompanyQOC 9.0DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.QOC 9.0ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GCMG · CAMT · GHM · WDFC · DRS · ADI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)'s intrinsic value at $80.67 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.96 to $173.02. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BOOT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $155.62, 1 of 9 active models suggest BOOT may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $80.67, 48.2% below the current price of $155.62 — a consensus view that BOOT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for BOOT?

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BOOT?

CirclFi analyzes BOOT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BOOT?

Of the 9 models currently active on BOOT, First Chicago is the most bullish at $173.02 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $15.96. CirclFi's published fair value for BOOT is the median of that range, $80.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 195% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BOOT a value trap in 2026?

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) has a median fair value of $80.67 — 48.2% below the current price of $155.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BOOT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BOOT valuation
  • Financial statements: Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001610250) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BOOT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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