Genesco Inc. (GCO) Fair Value 2026

GCO · Retail-Shoe Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Genesco Inc. (GCO) trades at $34.42, approximately 65% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $99.17. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GCO
Price
$34.42
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +188.1% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($34.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$99.17 +188.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$41.54 +20.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$58.72 +70.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$48.22 +40.1%

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What Is Genesco Inc. (GCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genesco Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $54.63. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $34.42 (implied upside of +58.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 9 of 13 bullish models. Notably, EROIC sees the most upside at +321.9% (fair value: $145.22), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -77.8% ($7.65). The spread between these extremes — +399.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GCO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for GCO. Of these, 11 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GCO's intrinsic value at $99.17, implying +188.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GCO Rank in Retail-Shoe Stores?

Among 3 Retail-Shoe Stores stocks, GCO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Retail-Shoe Stores space, Genesco Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GCO a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Genesco Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Genesco Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +399.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GCO's 13 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Genesco Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Shoe Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Retail-Shoe Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BOOT · DBI

Frequently Asked Questions About Genesco Inc.

What is Genesco Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Genesco Inc. (GCO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $99.17. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $34.42, 11 of 13 active models suggest GCO may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Genesco Inc.'s business model in Retail-Shoe Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for GCO?

Genesco Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GCO?

CirclFi analyzes GCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GCO a value trap in 2026?

Genesco Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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