Genesco Inc. (GCO) Fair Value 2026

GCO · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Genesco Inc. (GCO) trades at $36.14, versus a $43.91 median fair value across its 13 active models — 21.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $89.00.

Key Facts

Ticker
GCO
Price
$36.14
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +182.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is Genesco Inc. (GCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Genesco Inc. (GCO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $43.91, 21.5% above the current price of $36.14. Estimates range from $6.56 to $102.10. GCO scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. GCO’s +21.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is -0.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Genesco Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GCO?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($36.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $89.00 +146.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.56 -81.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.91 +21.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $102.10 +182.5%
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What Is GCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $6.56 to $102.10

CirclFi's 13 active models place Genesco Inc. (GCO) between $6.56 and $102.10 per share, a spread of 218% of the median. The median of that range — $43.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GCO, against a current price of $36.14.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$6.56median $43.91$102.10
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$6.56
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$102.10
Model agreement7 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Genesco Inc. (GCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genesco Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $43.91, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $36.14. With a median implied return of +21.5% across a split 7–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +264.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +182.5% (fair value: $102.10), while EPV is the most conservative at -81.8% ($6.56). The spread between these extremes — +264.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GCO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for GCO. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GCO is $43.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $89.00 on its own, implying +146.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GCO Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 36 Apparel Retail stocks, GCO ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Apparel Retail space, Genesco Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GCO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Genesco Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Genesco Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +264.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GCO's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Genesco Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

BURLBurlington Stores, Inc.QOC 7.8LELands' End, Inc.QOC 7.6AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.QOC 7.9CRICarter's, Inc.QOC 7.6SHOEShoe Station Group Inc.QOC 7.9ZUMZZumiez Inc.QOC 7.2CATOThe Cato CorporationQOC 6.3MYSZMy Size, Inc.QOC 5.1URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.1ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BURL · LE · AEO · CRI · SHOE · ZUMZ · CATO · MYSZ · URBN · BKE · ANF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to GCO’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6DSXDiana Shipping Inc.QOC 7.6GBTGGlobal Business Travel Group, Inc.QOC 7.6FORForestar Group Inc.QOC 7.6LFUSLittelfuse, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CCC · RDN · DSX · GBTG · FOR · LFUS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Genesco Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Genesco Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Genesco Inc. (GCO)'s intrinsic value at $43.91 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $6.56 to $102.10. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $89.00 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $36.14, 7 of 13 active models suggest GCO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $43.91, 21.5% above the current price of $36.14 — a consensus view that GCO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Genesco Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for GCO?

Genesco Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GCO?

CirclFi analyzes GCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GCO?

Of the 13 models currently active on GCO, First Chicago is the most bullish at $102.10 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $6.56. CirclFi's published fair value for GCO is the median of that range, $43.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 218% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GCO a value trap in 2026?

Genesco Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Genesco Inc. (GCO) has a median fair value of $43.91 — 21.5% above the current price of $36.14 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Genesco Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000018498) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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