Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) Fair Value 2026

DLTH · Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) trades at $4.10, approximately 14% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.60. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DLTH
Price
$4.10
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +272.9% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$3.60 -12.3%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$15.29 +272.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$5.05 +23.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$6.49 +58.4%

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What Is Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Duluth Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $5.86, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $4.10. While the average implied return is +42.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +362.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, EPV, places fair value at $15.29 (+272.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.43 (-89.5%). This +362.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Duluth Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DLTH?

13 of 13 models are currently active for DLTH. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DLTH's intrinsic value at $3.60, implying -12.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DLTH Rank in Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores?

Among 9 Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores stocks, DLTH ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Duluth Holdings Inc.'s positioning within the Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores segment means that same-store sales growth (comps) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DLTH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DLTH a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Duluth Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Duluth Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 5.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +362.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DLTH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DLTH's 13 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Duluth Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: VNCE · JEM · CTRN · JL · ZUMZ

Frequently Asked Questions About Duluth Holdings Inc.

What is Duluth Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.60. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DLTH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.10, 7 of 13 active models suggest DLTH may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Duluth Holdings Inc.'s business model in Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for DLTH?

Duluth Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DLTH?

CirclFi analyzes DLTH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DLTH a value trap in 2026?

Duluth Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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