Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) Fair Value 2026

RCAT · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) trades at $8.49. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RCAT
Price
$8.49
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RCAT?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.35 -72.3%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.35. Trading at its current price of $8.49, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 1 of 1 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -72.3%.

What Do the Models Say About RCAT?

1 of 13 models are currently active for RCAT. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RCAT Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, RCAT ranks #47 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that backlog-to-revenue ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including defense budget growth globally — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is RCAT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RCAT a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Red Cat Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RCAT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RCAT's 1 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5CVUCPI Aerostructures, Inc.QOC 6.5EHEHang Holdings LimitedQOC 6.5POWWOutdoor Holding CompanyQOC 6.5RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.QOC 5.0TATTTAT Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.5AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: AIRO · CVU · EH · POWW · RDW · SPCE · LUNR · TATT · AIR · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RCAT?

7 companies across all industries closest to RCAT’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.QOC 6.5CLPTClearPoint Neuro, Inc.QOC 6.5ZIPZipRecruiter, Inc.QOC 6.5NAVINavient CorporationQOC 6.5ARRYArray Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.5NAIINatural Alternatives International, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: APD · CLPT · ZIP · NAVI · ARRY · NAII · NVDA

Where Does RCAT Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

RCAT is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Red Cat Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT). The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RCAT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.49, 0 of 1 active models suggest RCAT may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for RCAT?

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RCAT?

CirclFi analyzes RCAT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RCAT a value trap in 2026?

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RCAT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RCAT valuation
  • Financial statements: Red Cat Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000748268) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RCAT as of ; valuations recomputed .