Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) Fair Value 2026

POWW · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) trades at $2.19, versus a $1.92 median fair value across its 7 active models — 12.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.60.

Key Facts

Ticker
POWW
Price
$2.19
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +59.4% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $1.92, 12.5% below the current price of $2.19. Estimates range from $0.33 to $3.49. POWW scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. POWW’s -12.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Outdoor Holding Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give POWW?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.60 -72.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.78 -18.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $3.49 +59.4%
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What Is POWW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.33 to $3.49

CirclFi's 7 active models place Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) between $0.33 and $3.49 per share, a spread of 165% of the median. The median of that range — $1.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for POWW, against a current price of $2.19.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$0.33median $1.92$3.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.33
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$3.49
Model agreement3 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for POWW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on POWW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Outdoor Holding Company at its current price of $2.19. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $1.92 (-12.5% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $3.49 (+59.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.33 (-84.9%). This +144.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Outdoor Holding Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About POWW?

7 of 13 models are currently active for POWW. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for POWW is $1.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.60 on its own, implying -72.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does POWW Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, POWW ranks #47 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace and defense sector, Outdoor Holding Company operates in a sector where commercial deliveries is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating POWW should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is POWW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns POWW a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Outdoor Holding Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Outdoor Holding Company's fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +144.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every POWW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across POWW's 7 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Outdoor Holding Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5PLPlanet Labs PBCQOC 6.4EHEHang Holdings LimitedQOC 6.5PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.QOC 4.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: RCAT · SPCE · AIRO · PL · EH · PEW · FJET · BUKS · LMT · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to POWW?

7 companies across all industries closest to POWW’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

FBLAFB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.5PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc.QOC 6.5IEHCIEH CorporationQOC 6.5OXMOxford Industries, Inc.QOC 6.5GFLGFL Environmental Inc.QOC 6.5TCITranscontinental Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FBLA · PFSI · IEHC · OXM · GFL · TCI · NVDA

Where Does POWW Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

POWW is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Outdoor Holding Company’s Valuation?

What is Outdoor Holding Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Outdoor Holding Company (POWW)'s intrinsic value at $1.92 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.33 to $3.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.60 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is POWW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.19, 3 of 7 active models suggest POWW may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $1.92, 12.5% below the current price of $2.19 — a consensus view that POWW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Outdoor Holding Company's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for POWW?

Outdoor Holding Company's QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on POWW?

CirclFi analyzes POWW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on POWW?

Of the 7 models currently active on POWW, First Chicago is the most bullish at $3.49 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.33. CirclFi's published fair value for POWW is the median of that range, $1.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 165% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is POWW a value trap in 2026?

Outdoor Holding Company's Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) has a median fair value of $1.92 — 12.5% below the current price of $2.19 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/POWW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this POWW valuation
  • Financial statements: Outdoor Holding Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001015383) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for POWW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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