AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Fair Value 2026

AXTI · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) trades at $58.63, versus a $59.16 median fair value across its 3 active models — 0.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AXTI
Price
$58.63
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +67.1% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $59.16, essentially in line with the current price of $58.63. Estimates range from $2.31 to $97.94. AXTI scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AXTI’s +0.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector median is -73.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AXT, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AXTI?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($58.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Scenario · High Conviction
 $2.31 -96.1%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $97.94 +67.1%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $59.16 +0.9%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is AXTI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $2.31 to $97.94

CirclFi's 3 active models place AXT, Inc. (AXTI) between $2.31 and $97.94 per share, a spread of 162% of the median. The median of that range — $59.16 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AXTI, against a current price of $58.63.

Low · First ChicagoHigh · Regime Cross
$2.31median $59.16$97.94
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFirst Chicago$2.31
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$97.94
Model agreement1 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AXTI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AXTI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AXT, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $59.16, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $58.63. With a median implied return of +0.9% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +163.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +67.1% (fair value: $97.94), while First Chicago is the most conservative at -96.1% ($2.31). The spread between these extremes — +163.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AXTI?

3 of 13 models are currently active for AXTI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AXTI is $59.16 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AXTI Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?

Among 32 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, AXTI ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

AXT, Inc.'s positioning within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials segment means that average selling price (ASP) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automotive semiconductor content — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AXTI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXTI a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for AXT, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AXT, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AXTI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AXTI's 3 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AXT, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

ICHRIchor Holdings, Ltd.QOC 6.8ASYSAmtech Systems, Inc.QOC 6.4COHUCohu, Inc.QOC 6.8TRTTrio-Tech InternationalQOC 6.4AEHRAehr Test Systems, Inc.QOC 6.9UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4ASMLASML Holding N.V.QOC 9.7ACMRACM Research, Inc.QOC 8.7KLICKulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ICHR · ASYS · COHU · TRT · AEHR · UCTT · ASML · ACMR · KLIC · KLAC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AXTI?

7 companies across all industries closest to AXTI’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

LAWCS Disco, Inc.QOC 6.7RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7LASRnLIGHT, Inc.QOC 6.7ANGOAngioDynamics, Inc.QOC 6.7CCELCryo-Cell International, Inc.QOC 6.7KTCCKey Tronic CorporationQOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LAW · RDW · LASR · ANGO · CCEL · KTCC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AXT, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AXT, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AXT, Inc. (AXTI)'s intrinsic value at $59.16 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.31 to $97.94. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AXTI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $58.63, 2 of 3 active models suggest AXTI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $59.16, essentially in line with the current price of $58.63 — a consensus view that AXTI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AXT, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for AXTI?

AXT, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AXTI?

CirclFi analyzes AXTI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AXTI?

Of the 3 models currently active on AXTI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $97.94 per share, and First Chicago is the most bearish at $2.31. CirclFi's published fair value for AXTI is the median of that range, $59.16, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 162% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AXTI a value trap in 2026?

AXT, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) has a median fair value of $59.16 — essentially in line with the current price of $58.63 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AXTI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AXTI valuation
  • Financial statements: AXT, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001051627) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AXTI as of ; valuations recomputed .