What Is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $32.96. Trading at $46.16, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.6%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $95.16 (+106.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.42 (-94.8%). This +200.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About CVLG?
12 of 13 models are currently active for CVLG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CVLG's intrinsic value at $8.66, implying -81.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does CVLG Rank in Trucking (No Local)?
Among 12 Trucking (No Local) stocks, CVLG ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.
The Trucking (No Local) sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is CVLG a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVLG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. scores 7.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +200.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every CVLG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across CVLG's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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