Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) Fair Value 2026

CVLG · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) trades at $33.09, versus a $22.41 median fair value across its 11 active models — 32.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $28.56.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVLG
Price
$33.09
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +28.1% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $22.41, 32.3% below the current price of $33.09. Estimates range from $2.29 to $153.44. CVLG scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CVLG’s -32.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Trucking sector median is -31.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVLG?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.56 -13.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.29 -93.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.57 -37.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.40 +28.1%
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What Is CVLG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.29 to $153.44

CirclFi's 11 active models place Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) between $2.29 and $153.44 per share, a spread of 675% of the median. The median of that range — $22.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVLG, against a current price of $33.09.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.29median $22.41$153.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$2.29
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$153.44
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVLG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVLG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $22.41. Trading at $33.09, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -32.3%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $153.44 (+363.7%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $2.29 (-93.1%). This +456.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CVLG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CVLG. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CVLG is $22.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $28.56 on its own, implying -13.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVLG Rank in Trucking?

Among 16 Trucking stocks, CVLG ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

The Trucking sector introduces analytical considerations specific to automotive businesses. For Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CVLG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVLG a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. scores 6.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +456.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVLG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVLG's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8HTLDHeartland Express, Inc.QOC 6.5WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4ETSElite Express Holding Inc.QOC 6.2SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0MRTNMarten Transport, Ltd.QOC 7.3ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: RXO · HTLD · WERN · ULH · KNX · TOPP · ETS · SAIA · MRTN · ODFL · XPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVLG?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVLG’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

PAYDPAID, Inc.QOC 6.7LCTCLifeloc Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.7AMNAMN Healthcare Services, Inc.QOC 6.7AXTIAXT, Inc.QOC 6.7GMGeneral Motors CompanyQOC 6.7BTBDBT Brands, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PAYD · LCTC · AMN · AXTI · GM · BTBD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)'s intrinsic value at $22.41 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.29 to $153.44. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $28.56 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVLG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.09, 3 of 11 active models suggest CVLG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $22.41, 32.3% below the current price of $33.09 — a consensus view that CVLG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for CVLG?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVLG?

CirclFi analyzes CVLG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVLG?

Of the 11 models currently active on CVLG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $153.44 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $2.29. CirclFi's published fair value for CVLG is the median of that range, $22.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 675% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVLG a value trap in 2026?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) has a median fair value of $22.41 — 32.3% below the current price of $33.09 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVLG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVLG valuation
  • Financial statements: Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000928658) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVLG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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