Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Fair Value 2026

ODFL · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) trades at $199.96, versus a $62.72 median fair value across its 9 active models — 68.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $62.72.

Key Facts

Ticker
ODFL
Price
$199.96
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $62.72, 68.6% below the current price of $199.96. Estimates range from $35.80 to $289.79. ODFL scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. ODFL’s -68.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ODFL?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($199.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $62.72 -68.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $53.94 -73.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $66.78 -66.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.80 -82.1%
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What Is ODFL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $35.80 to $289.79

CirclFi's 9 active models place Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) between $35.80 and $289.79 per share, a spread of 405% of the median. The median of that range — $62.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ODFL, against a current price of $199.96.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$35.80median $62.72$289.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$35.80
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$289.79
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ODFL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ODFL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $62.72, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $199.96. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-68.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $289.79 (+44.9%), versus EROIC at $35.80 (-82.1%). This +127.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ODFL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ODFL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ODFL is $62.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $62.72 on its own, implying -68.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ODFL Rank in Trucking?

Among 17 Trucking stocks, ODFL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ODFL in the top tier.

As a transportation company, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates in a sector where fleet electrification pace is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ODFL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ODFL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ODFL a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ODFL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ODFL's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

TLSSTransportation and Logistics Systems, Inc.QOC 3.9XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5PAMTPAMT CORPQOC 5.8SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0ETSElite Express Holding Inc.QOC 6.2SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7WERNWerner Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.8ULHUniversal Logistics Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4

Read investment analysis: TLSS · XPO · PAMT · SAIA · ETS · SNDR · ARCB · WERN · ULH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ODFL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ODFL’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.QOC 8.6ESIElement Solutions IncQOC 8.6BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6INVAInnoviva, Inc.QOC 8.6TRNOTerreno Realty CorporationQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FIVE · CASY · ESI · BUDA · INVA · TRNO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)'s intrinsic value at $62.72 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $35.80 to $289.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $62.72 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $199.96, 1 of 9 active models suggest ODFL may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $62.72, 68.6% below the current price of $199.96 — a consensus view that ODFL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ODFL?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ODFL?

CirclFi analyzes ODFL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ODFL?

Of the 9 models currently active on ODFL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $289.79 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $35.80. CirclFi's published fair value for ODFL is the median of that range, $62.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 405% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ODFL a value trap in 2026?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) has a median fair value of $62.72 — 68.6% below the current price of $199.96 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ODFL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ODFL valuation
  • Financial statements: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000878927) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ODFL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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