XPO, Inc. (XPO) Fair Value 2026

XPO · Trucking ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, XPO, Inc. (XPO) trades at $188.56, versus a $96.25 median fair value across its 6 active models — 49.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XPO
Price
$188.56
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is XPO, Inc. (XPO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, XPO, Inc. (XPO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $96.25, 49.0% below the current price of $188.56. Estimates range from $10.19 to $272.18. XPO scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 5/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. XPO’s -49.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy XPO, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XPO?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($188.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $96.37 -48.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $149.59 -20.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.19 -94.6%
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What Is XPO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $10.19 to $272.18

CirclFi's 6 active models place XPO, Inc. (XPO) between $10.19 and $272.18 per share, a spread of 272% of the median. The median of that range — $96.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XPO, against a current price of $188.56.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$10.19median $96.25$272.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$10.19
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$272.18
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XPO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XPO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is XPO, Inc. (XPO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, XPO, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $96.25, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $188.56. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-49.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +44.3% (fair value: $272.18), while EROIC is the most conservative at -94.6% ($10.19). The spread between these extremes — +138.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About XPO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for XPO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XPO is $96.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XPO Rank in Trucking?

Among 17 Trucking stocks, XPO ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places XPO in the top tier.

Within the Trucking space, XPO, Inc. competes in an environment where EV mix percentage often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is XPO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XPO a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for XPO, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, XPO, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +138.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XPO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XPO's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy XPO, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Trucking Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Trucking stocks with 13-model coverage

ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6SAIASaia, Inc.QOC 8.0TLSSTransportation and Logistics Systems, Inc.QOC 3.9SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8PAMTPAMT CORPQOC 5.8ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7TFIITFI International Inc.QOC 7.6RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8TOPPToppoint Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4

Read investment analysis: ODFL · SAIA · TLSS · SNDR · PAMT · ARCB · TFII · RXO · TOPP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XPO?

7 companies across all industries closest to XPO’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.5KNKnowles CorporationQOC 8.4CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.5KEXKirby CorporationQOC 8.4PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ORLY · KN · CBSH · KEX · PYPL · CKX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About XPO, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is XPO, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts XPO, Inc. (XPO)'s intrinsic value at $96.25 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.19 to $272.18. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XPO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $188.56, 1 of 6 active models suggest XPO may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $96.25, 49.0% below the current price of $188.56 — a consensus view that XPO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits XPO, Inc.'s business model in Trucking.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for XPO?

XPO, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XPO?

CirclFi analyzes XPO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XPO?

Of the 6 models currently active on XPO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $272.18 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $10.19. CirclFi's published fair value for XPO is the median of that range, $96.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 272% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XPO a value trap in 2026?

XPO, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, XPO, Inc. (XPO) has a median fair value of $96.25 — 49.0% below the current price of $188.56 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XPO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XPO valuation
  • Financial statements: XPO, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001166003) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XPO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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