Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Fair Value 2026

BKNG · Travel Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) trades at $202.56, versus a $233.70 median fair value across its 8 active models — 15.4% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $198.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
BKNG
Price
$202.56
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +66.6% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $233.70, 15.4% above the current price of $202.56. Estimates range from $166.58 to $337.55. BKNG scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BKNG’s +15.4% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Booking Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BKNG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($202.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $198.97 -1.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $236.57 +16.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $337.55 +66.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $279.36 +37.9%
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What Is BKNG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $166.58 to $337.55

CirclFi's 8 active models place Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) between $166.58 and $337.55 per share, a spread of 73% of the median. The median of that range — $233.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BKNG, against a current price of $202.56.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · First Chicago
$166.58median $233.70$337.55
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$166.58
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$337.55
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BKNG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Booking Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $233.70, suggesting a +15.4% median upside from the current price of $202.56. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $337.55 (+66.6%), versus RCMH-DCF at $166.58 (-17.8%). This +84.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BKNG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for BKNG. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BKNG is $233.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $198.97 on its own, implying -1.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BKNG Rank in Travel Services?

Among 18 Travel Services stocks, BKNG ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places BKNG in the top tier.

Booking Holdings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BKNG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BKNG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Booking Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Booking Holdings Inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +84.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BKNG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BKNG's 8 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Booking Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Travel Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Travel Services stocks with 13-model coverage

EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.QOC 9.0TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedQOC 8.8ABNBAirbnb, Inc.QOC 9.5MMYTMakeMyTrip LimitedQOC 8.4VIKViking Holdings LtdQOC 2.8CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.QOC 8.2RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.QOC 8.2LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5NNAXNew Momentum CorporationQOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: EXPE · TCOM · ABNB · MMYT · VIK · CCL · RCL · LIND · NNAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BKNG?

6 companies across all industries closest to BKNG’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

ONCBeOne Medicines AGQOC 9.0FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0DTDynatrace, Inc.QOC 9.0SYKStryker CorporationQOC 9.0PATHUiPath, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ONC · FLNG · DT · SYK · PATH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Booking Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Booking Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)'s intrinsic value at $233.70 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $166.58 to $337.55. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $198.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BKNG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $202.56, 5 of 8 active models suggest BKNG may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $233.70, 15.4% above the current price of $202.56 — a consensus view that BKNG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Booking Holdings Inc.'s business model in Travel Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for BKNG?

Booking Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BKNG?

CirclFi analyzes BKNG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BKNG?

Of the 8 models currently active on BKNG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $337.55 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $166.58. CirclFi's published fair value for BKNG is the median of that range, $233.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 73% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BKNG a value trap in 2026?

Booking Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) has a median fair value of $233.70 — 15.4% above the current price of $202.56 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BKNG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BKNG valuation
  • Financial statements: Booking Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001075531) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BKNG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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