Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Fair Value 2026

ESNT · Insurance - Specialty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) trades at $69.27, versus a $74.78 median fair value across its 6 active models — 7.9% above the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESNT
Price
$69.27
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +10.8% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $74.78, within 7.9% of the current price of $69.27. Estimates range from $61.62 to $100.06. ESNT scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ESNT’s +7.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Specialty sector median is +9.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Essent Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ESNT?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($69.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $76.73 +10.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $74.28 +7.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $75.27 +8.7%
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What Is ESNT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $61.62 to $100.06

CirclFi's 6 active models place Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) between $61.62 and $100.06 per share, a spread of 51% of the median. The median of that range — $74.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ESNT, against a current price of $69.27.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$61.62median $74.78$100.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$61.62
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$100.06
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ESNT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Essent Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $74.78, suggesting a +7.9% median upside from the current price of $69.27. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 1 model flags potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $100.06 (+44.5%), versus FTNN at $61.62 (-11.0%). This +55.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ESNT?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ESNT. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ESNT is $74.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESNT Rank in Insurance - Specialty?

Among 17 Insurance - Specialty stocks, ESNT ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places ESNT in the top tier.

Essent Group Ltd.'s positioning within the Insurance - Specialty segment means that combined ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including investment income yield — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ESNT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESNT a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Essent Group Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Essent Group Ltd. earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +55.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESNT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESNT's 6 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Essent Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Specialty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Specialty stocks with 13-model coverage

NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.8MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.5OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.0AXSAXIS Capital Holdings LimitedQOC 8.1ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0

Read investment analysis: NMIH · ACT · MBI · MTG · OSG · AXS · ITIC · RYAN · STLY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ESNT?

7 companies across all industries closest to ESNT’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1GRMNGarmin Ltd.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 9.1GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd.QOC 9.1XYZBlock, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: COKE · GRMN · PEBO · VRTX · GLRE · XYZ · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Essent Group Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Essent Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)'s intrinsic value at $74.78 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $61.62 to $100.06. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESNT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $69.27, 4 of 6 active models suggest ESNT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $74.78, within 7.9% of the current price of $69.27 — a consensus view that ESNT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Essent Group Ltd.'s business model in Insurance - Specialty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for ESNT?

Essent Group Ltd.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESNT?

CirclFi analyzes ESNT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ESNT?

Of the 6 models currently active on ESNT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $100.06 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $61.62. CirclFi's published fair value for ESNT is the median of that range, $74.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 51% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ESNT a value trap in 2026?

Essent Group Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) has a median fair value of $74.78 — within 7.9% of the current price of $69.27 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ESNT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ESNT valuation
  • Financial statements: Essent Group Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001448893) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ESNT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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