Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Fair Value 2026

ESNT · Surety Insurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) trades at $64.92, approximately 58% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $153.96. QOC: 9.1/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESNT
Price
$64.92
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +137.1% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($64.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $153.96 +137.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $71.32 +9.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $97.59 +50.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $65.34 +0.6%

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What Is Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Essent Group Ltd. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $64.93. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $100.67 (+55.1% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $305.97 (+371.3%), versus Dynamic NAV at $22.08 (-66.0%). This +437.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ESNT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ESNT. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ESNT's intrinsic value at $153.96, implying +137.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESNT Rank in Surety Insurance?

Among 7 Surety Insurance stocks, ESNT ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places ESNT in the top tier.

Essent Group Ltd.'s positioning within the Surety Insurance segment means that combined ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including investment income yield — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ESNT a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ESNT. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Essent Group Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Essent Group Ltd. earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +437.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESNT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESNT's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Essent Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Surety Insurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Surety Insurance stocks with 13-model coverage

MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.7ORIOld Republic International CorpQOC 7.9NMIHNMI Holdings IncQOC 7.9RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 6.6OSGOctave Specialty Group, Inc.QOC 6.6MBIMBIA Inc.QOC 5.7

Read investment analysis: MTG · ORI · NMIH · RDN · OSG

Frequently Asked Questions About Essent Group Ltd.

What is Essent Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $153.96. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESNT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $64.92, 7 of 13 active models suggest ESNT may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Essent Group Ltd.'s business model in Surety Insurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for ESNT?

Essent Group Ltd.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESNT?

CirclFi analyzes ESNT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ESNT a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ESNT at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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