Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) Fair Value 2026

KARO · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) trades at $67.09, versus a $33.47 median fair value across its 9 active models — 50.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $23.82.

Key Facts

Ticker
KARO
Price
$67.09
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +25.7% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $33.47, 50.1% below the current price of $67.09. Estimates range from $15.72 to $84.35. KARO scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KARO’s -50.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Karooooo Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KARO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($67.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $23.82 -64.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.49 -63.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $36.74 -45.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $84.35 +25.7%
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What Is KARO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $15.72 to $84.35

CirclFi's 9 active models place Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) between $15.72 and $84.35 per share, a spread of 205% of the median. The median of that range — $33.47 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KARO, against a current price of $67.09.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$15.72median $33.47$84.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$15.72
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$84.35
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KARO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KARO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Karooooo Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $33.47, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $67.09. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-50.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +25.7% (fair value: $84.35), while EROIC is the most conservative at -76.6% ($15.72). The spread between these extremes — +102.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KARO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for KARO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KARO is $33.47 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $23.82 on its own, implying -64.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KARO Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, KARO ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places KARO in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a software business, Karooooo Ltd. operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating KARO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is KARO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KARO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Karooooo Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Karooooo Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KARO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KARO's 9 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Karooooo Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

AGYSAgilysys, Inc.QOC 9.0DTDynatrace, Inc.QOC 9.0INTUIntuit Inc.QOC 9.0FICOFair Isaac CorporationQOC 9.0EGANeGain CorporationQOC 9.0DCBODocebo Inc.QOC 9.0MNDYmonday.com Ltd.QOC 7.4NAVNNavan, Inc.QOC 6.1GDLGGlidelogic Corp.QOC 4.1ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: AGYS · DT · INTU · FICO · EGAN · DCBO · MNDY · NAVN · GDLG · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KARO?

6 companies across all industries closest to KARO’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

SYKStryker CorporationQOC 9.0SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.QOC 9.0EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.QOC 9.0LULUlululemon athletica inc.QOC 9.0ONCBeOne Medicines AGQOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SYK · SMCI · EXPE · LULU · ONC · NVDA

Where Does KARO Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

KARO is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Karooooo Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Karooooo Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Karooooo Ltd. (KARO)'s intrinsic value at $33.47 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.72 to $84.35. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $23.82 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KARO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $67.09, 1 of 9 active models suggest KARO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $33.47, 50.1% below the current price of $67.09 — a consensus view that KARO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Karooooo Ltd.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for KARO?

Karooooo Ltd.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KARO?

CirclFi analyzes KARO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KARO?

Of the 9 models currently active on KARO, First Chicago is the most bullish at $84.35 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $15.72. CirclFi's published fair value for KARO is the median of that range, $33.47, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 205% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KARO a value trap in 2026?

Karooooo Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) has a median fair value of $33.47 — 50.1% below the current price of $67.09 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KARO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KARO valuation
  • Financial statements: Karooooo Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001828102) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KARO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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