monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Fair Value 2026

MNDY · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) trades at $100.71, versus a $99.13 median fair value across its 9 active models — 1.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $209.20.

Key Facts

Ticker
MNDY
Price
$100.71
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +107.7% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $99.13, within 1.6% of the current price of $100.71. Estimates range from $5.45 to $209.20. MNDY scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MNDY’s -1.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy monday.com Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MNDY?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($100.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $209.20 +107.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $99.90 -0.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $43.03 -57.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.45 -94.6%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including Markov DDM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MNDY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $5.45 to $209.20

CirclFi's 9 active models place monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) between $5.45 and $209.20 per share, a spread of 206% of the median. The median of that range — $99.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MNDY, against a current price of $100.71.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$5.45median $99.13$209.20
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$5.45
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$209.20
Model agreement3 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MNDY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MNDY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, monday.com Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $99.13, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $100.71. While the median implied return is -1.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +202.3% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $209.20 (+107.7%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $5.45 (-94.6%). This +202.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about monday.com Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MNDY?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MNDY. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MNDY is $99.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $209.20 on its own, implying +107.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MNDY Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, MNDY ranks #94 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For monday.com Ltd., metrics like free cash flow margin provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MNDY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MNDY a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for monday.com Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, monday.com Ltd. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +202.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MNDY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MNDY's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy monday.com Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

FROGJFrog Ltd.QOC 7.4JGAurora Mobile LimitedQOC 7.4PUBMPubMatic, Inc.QOC 7.4IBTAIbotta, Inc.QOC 7.4IMMRImmersion CorporationQOC 7.5AEYEAudioEye, Inc.QOC 7.3SMRTSmartRent, Inc.QOC 6.1GDLGGlidelogic Corp.QOC 4.1FICOFair Isaac CorporationQOC 9.0ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: FROG · JG · PUBM · IBTA · IMMR · AEYE · SMRT · GDLG · FICO · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MNDY?

7 companies across all industries closest to MNDY’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

BATLBattalion Oil CorporationQOC 7.4BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4TYFGTri-County Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.4DKNGDraftKings Inc.QOC 7.4HSHPHimalaya Shipping Ltd.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BATL · BXC · FUL · TYFG · DKNG · HSHP · NVDA

Where Does MNDY Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

MNDY is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About monday.com Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is monday.com Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)'s intrinsic value at $99.13 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.45 to $209.20. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $209.20 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MNDY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $100.71, 3 of 9 active models suggest MNDY may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $99.13, within 1.6% of the current price of $100.71 — a consensus view that MNDY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits monday.com Ltd.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for MNDY?

monday.com Ltd.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MNDY?

CirclFi analyzes MNDY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MNDY?

Of the 9 models currently active on MNDY, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $209.20 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $5.45. CirclFi's published fair value for MNDY is the median of that range, $99.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 206% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MNDY a value trap in 2026?

monday.com Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) has a median fair value of $99.13 — within 1.6% of the current price of $100.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MNDY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MNDY valuation
  • Financial statements: monday.com Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001845338) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MNDY as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MNDY.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

5 models hidden for MNDY Unlock All 9 — $39/mo