monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Fair Value 2026

MNDY · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) trades at $86.84, approximately 4% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $90.09. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MNDY
Price
$86.84
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +36.7% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($86.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$90.09 +3.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$34.86 -59.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$61.71 -28.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$118.69 +36.7%

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What Is monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, monday.com Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $62.13. Trading at its current price of $86.84, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -28.5%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $118.69 (+36.7%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $15.90 (-81.7%). This +118.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about monday.com Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MNDY?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MNDY. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MNDY's intrinsic value at $90.09, implying +3.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MNDY Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, MNDY ranks #52 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places MNDY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →

The Services-Prepackaged Software sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For monday.com Ltd., metrics like free cash flow margin provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MNDY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MNDY a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for monday.com Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, monday.com Ltd. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +118.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MNDY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MNDY's 13 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy monday.com Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CRM · CVLT · EGAN · MANH · MSFT

See all Services-Prepackaged Software stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About monday.com Ltd.

What is monday.com Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $90.09. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MNDY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $86.84, 3 of 13 active models suggest MNDY may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits monday.com Ltd.'s business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for MNDY?

monday.com Ltd.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MNDY?

CirclFi analyzes MNDY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MNDY a value trap in 2026?

monday.com Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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