Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) Fair Value 2026

IBTA · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (44/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) trades at $40.96, versus a $40.48 median fair value across its 9 active models — 1.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 44/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $71.83.

Key Facts

Ticker
IBTA
Price
$40.96
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
44/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +75.4% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 44 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $40.48, within 1.2% of the current price of $40.96. Estimates range from $4.48 to $71.83. IBTA scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 44/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. IBTA’s -1.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -20.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ibotta, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IBTA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.83 +75.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.48 -89.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $40.48 -1.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $49.77 +21.5%
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What Is IBTA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.48 to $71.83

CirclFi's 9 active models place Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) between $4.48 and $71.83 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $40.48 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IBTA, against a current price of $40.96.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$4.48median $40.48$71.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.48
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$71.83
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IBTA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IBTA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ibotta, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $40.48, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $40.96. While the median implied return is -1.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +164.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $71.83 (+75.4%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $4.48 (-89.1%). This +164.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ibotta, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About IBTA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for IBTA. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IBTA is $40.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $71.83 on its own, implying +75.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IBTA Rank in Software - Application?

Among 261 Software - Application stocks, IBTA ranks #95 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to technology businesses. For Ibotta, Inc., metrics like gross margin profile provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is IBTA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IBTA a score of 44/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Ibotta, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ibotta, Inc. scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +164.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IBTA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IBTA's 9 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ibotta, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

JGAurora Mobile LimitedQOC 7.4BRZEBraze, Inc.QOC 7.3MNDYmonday.com Ltd.QOC 7.4AEYEAudioEye, Inc.QOC 7.3FROGJFrog Ltd.QOC 7.4SPTSprout Social, Inc.QOC 7.3NAVNNavan, Inc.QOC 6.1GDLGGlidelogic Corp.QOC 4.1FICOFair Isaac CorporationQOC 9.0ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: JG · BRZE · MNDY · AEYE · FROG · SPT · NAVN · GDLG · FICO · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IBTA?

7 companies across all industries closest to IBTA’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

OGCPEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.4FISKEmpire State Realty OP, L.P.QOC 7.4APTAlpha Pro Tech, Ltd.QOC 7.4KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc.QOC 7.4LXPLXP Industrial TrustQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OGCP · FISK · APT · KD · CSTL · LXP · NVDA

Where Does IBTA Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

IBTA is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ibotta, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ibotta, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)'s intrinsic value at $40.48 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $4.48 to $71.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $71.83 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IBTA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.96, 4 of 9 active models suggest IBTA may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $40.48, within 1.2% of the current price of $40.96 — a consensus view that IBTA is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ibotta, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for IBTA?

Ibotta, Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IBTA?

CirclFi analyzes IBTA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IBTA?

Of the 9 models currently active on IBTA, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $71.83 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.48. CirclFi's published fair value for IBTA is the median of that range, $40.48, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IBTA a value trap in 2026?

Ibotta, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 44/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) has a median fair value of $40.48 — within 1.2% of the current price of $40.96 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IBTA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IBTA valuation
  • Financial statements: Ibotta, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001538379) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IBTA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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