What Is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Autodesk, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $148.28, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $212.22. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-30.1% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $379.70 (+78.9%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $23.20 (-89.1%). This +168.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Autodesk, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ADSK?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ADSK. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ADSK's intrinsic value at $152.70, implying -28.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ADSK Rank in Software - Application?
Among 20 Software - Application stocks, ADSK ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places ADSK in the top tier.
As a technology sector, Autodesk, Inc. operates in a sector where R&D intensity is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ADSK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is ADSK a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADSK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Autodesk, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Autodesk, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 10.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +168.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ADSK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ADSK's 13 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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