Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Fair Value 2026

ADSK · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) trades at $270.58, versus a $144.81 median fair value across its 9 active models — 46.5% below the current price. QOC: 9.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $176.16.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADSK
Price
$270.58
Quality Score
9.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $144.81, 46.5% below the current price of $270.58. Estimates range from $37.77 to $392.97. ADSK scores 9.8/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ADSK’s -46.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Autodesk, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADSK?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($270.58)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $176.16 -34.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.77 -86.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $129.32 -52.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $144.81 -46.5%
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What Is ADSK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $37.77 to $392.97

CirclFi's 9 active models place Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) between $37.77 and $392.97 per share, a spread of 245% of the median. The median of that range — $144.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADSK, against a current price of $270.58.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$37.77median $144.81$392.97
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$37.77
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$392.97
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ADSK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADSK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Autodesk, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $144.81, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $270.58. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-46.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $392.97 (+45.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $37.77 (-86.0%). This +131.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Autodesk, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ADSK?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ADSK. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ADSK is $144.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $176.16 on its own, implying -34.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADSK Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, ADSK ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.8 places ADSK in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a technology sector, Autodesk, Inc. operates in a sector where R&D intensity is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ADSK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ADSK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADSK a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Autodesk, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Autodesk, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.8/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADSK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADSK's 9 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Autodesk, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

AZA2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp.QOC 1.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8BIYABaiya International Group Inc.QOC 2.3PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.QOC 9.7WCTWellchange Holdings Company LimitedQOC 2.4ZMZoom Communications, Inc.QOC 9.6PERFPerfect Corp.QOC 8.1ALKTAlkami Technology, Inc.QOC 6.7FUSEFusemachines Inc.QOC 4.9

Read investment analysis: AZ · PTC · BIYA · PAYC · WCT · ZM · PERF · ALKT · FUSE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADSK?

6 companies across all industries closest to ADSK’s Quality of Company score of 9.8/10.

HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8DUKUDuke Energy CorporationQOC —NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: HCI · KLAC · NVDA · FUTU · DUKU · NFLX

Where Does ADSK Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

ADSK is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Autodesk, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Autodesk, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)'s intrinsic value at $144.81 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $37.77 to $392.97. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $176.16 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADSK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $270.58, 1 of 9 active models suggest ADSK may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $144.81, 46.5% below the current price of $270.58 — a consensus view that ADSK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Autodesk, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.8 mean for ADSK?

Autodesk, Inc.'s QOC of 9.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADSK?

CirclFi analyzes ADSK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADSK?

Of the 9 models currently active on ADSK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $392.97 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $37.77. CirclFi's published fair value for ADSK is the median of that range, $144.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 245% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADSK a value trap in 2026?

Autodesk, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) has a median fair value of $144.81 — 46.5% below the current price of $270.58 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADSK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADSK valuation
  • Financial statements: Autodesk, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000769397) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADSK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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