What Is Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Automatic Data Processing, Inc. at its current price of $251.05. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $266.75 (+6.3% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $1,108.31 (+341.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $76.10 (-69.7%). This +411.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ADP?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ADP. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ADP's intrinsic value at $195.17, implying -22.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ADP Rank in Software - Application?
Among 20 Software - Application stocks, ADP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places ADP in the top tier.
As a technology sector, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. operates in a sector where customer acquisition cost (CAC) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ADP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is ADP a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADP a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Automatic Data Processing, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +411.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ADP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ADP's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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