Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Fair Value 2026

SHOP · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) trades at $152.90, versus a $21.24 median fair value across its 8 active models — 86.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
SHOP
Price
$152.90
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $21.24, 86.1% below the current price of $152.90. Estimates range from $9.97 to $73.09. SHOP scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SHOP’s -86.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Shopify Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SHOP?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($152.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.30 -92.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.47 -87.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $24.24 -84.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.99 -93.5%
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What Is SHOP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $9.97 to $73.09

CirclFi's 8 active models place Shopify Inc. (SHOP) between $9.97 and $73.09 per share, a spread of 297% of the median. The median of that range — $21.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SHOP, against a current price of $152.90.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$9.97median $21.24$73.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$9.97
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$73.09
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SHOP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SHOP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Shopify Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $21.24. Trading at its current price of $152.90, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -86.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $73.09 (-52.2%), versus RCMH-DCF at $9.97 (-93.5%). This +41.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SHOP?

8 of 13 models are currently active for SHOP. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SHOP is $21.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.30 on its own, implying -92.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SHOP Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, SHOP ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places SHOP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to digital enterprise businesses. For Shopify Inc., metrics like customer acquisition cost (CAC) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SHOP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SHOP a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Shopify Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Shopify Inc. scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +41.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SHOP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SHOP's 8 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Shopify Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.2ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.QOC 9.3APPFAppFolio, Inc.QOC 9.2ADBEAdobe Inc.QOC 9.4CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.QOC 9.2NCNOnCino, Inc.QOC 7.9DMRCDigimarc CorporationQOC 6.4ALDSAPPlife Digital Solutions Inc.QOC 4.7ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ALRM · TRAK · ADP · APPF · ADBE · CDNS · NCNO · DMRC · ALDS · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SHOP?

7 companies across all industries closest to SHOP’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 9.3EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MEDP · AMP · UI · AZN · EAT · PH · NVDA

Where Does SHOP Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

SHOP is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Shopify Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Shopify Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Shopify Inc. (SHOP)'s intrinsic value at $21.24 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.97 to $73.09. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SHOP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $152.90, 0 of 8 active models suggest SHOP may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $21.24, 86.1% below the current price of $152.90 — a consensus view that SHOP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Shopify Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for SHOP?

Shopify Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SHOP?

CirclFi analyzes SHOP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SHOP?

Of the 8 models currently active on SHOP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $73.09 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $9.97. CirclFi's published fair value for SHOP is the median of that range, $21.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 297% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SHOP a value trap in 2026?

Shopify Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) has a median fair value of $21.24 — 86.1% below the current price of $152.90 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SHOP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SHOP valuation
  • Financial statements: Shopify Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001594805) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SHOP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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