Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Fair Value 2026

YMM · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) trades at $8.77, versus a $11.67 median fair value across its 10 active models — 33.1% above the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.33.

Key Facts

Ticker
YMM
Price
$8.77
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +104.6% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $11.67, 33.1% above the current price of $8.77. Estimates range from $2.99 to $17.95. YMM scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. YMM’s +33.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give YMM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.33 +74.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.37 +41.0%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $17.95 +104.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $17.46 +99.0%
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What Is YMM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.99 to $17.95

CirclFi's 10 active models place Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) between $2.99 and $17.95 per share, a spread of 128% of the median. The median of that range — $11.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for YMM, against a current price of $8.77.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$2.99median $11.67$17.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.99
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$17.95
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for YMM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on YMM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. at $8.77. With an estimated intrinsic value of $11.67 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +33.1%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $17.95 (+104.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.99 (-65.9%). This +170.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About YMM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for YMM. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for YMM is $11.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.33 on its own, implying +74.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does YMM Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, YMM ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places YMM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a technology sector, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating YMM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is YMM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns YMM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. is rated at 9.2/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +170.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every YMM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across YMM's 10 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.QOC 9.2UBERUber Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1APPFAppFolio, Inc.QOC 9.2ESTCElastic N.V.QOC 9.1TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.2BSYBentley Systems, IncorporatedQOC 9.1VTSIVirTra, Inc.QOC 7.6IPMIntelligent Protection Management Corp.QOC 6.2SVMBJingbo Technology, Inc.QOC 4.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: CDNS · UBER · APPF · ESTC · TRAK · BSY · VTSI · IPM · SVMB · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to YMM?

7 companies across all industries closest to YMM’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

ALLThe Allstate CorporationQOC 9.2TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.QOC 9.2HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2VICRVicor CorporationQOC 9.2UFPTUFP Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.2FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ALL · TMDX · HALO · VICR · UFPT · FTDR · NVDA

Where Does YMM Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

YMM is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM)'s intrinsic value at $11.67 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.99 to $17.95. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.33 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.77, 7 of 10 active models suggest YMM may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $11.67, 33.1% above the current price of $8.77 — a consensus view that YMM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for YMM?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on YMM?

CirclFi analyzes YMM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on YMM?

Of the 10 models currently active on YMM, First Chicago is the most bullish at $17.95 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.99. CirclFi's published fair value for YMM is the median of that range, $11.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 128% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is YMM a value trap in 2026?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) has a median fair value of $11.67 — 33.1% above the current price of $8.77 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/YMM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this YMM valuation
  • Financial statements: Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001838413) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for YMM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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