Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) Fair Value 2026

CVLT · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) trades at $140.36, versus a $76.86 median fair value across its 6 active models — 45.2% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $110.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVLT
Price
$140.36
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $76.86, 45.2% below the current price of $140.36. Estimates range from $15.71 to $327.54. CVLT scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CVLT’s -45.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Commvault Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVLT?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($140.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $110.30 -21.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.71 -88.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $74.80 -46.7%
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What Is CVLT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $15.71 to $327.54

CirclFi's 6 active models place Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) between $15.71 and $327.54 per share, a spread of 406% of the median. The median of that range — $76.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVLT, against a current price of $140.36.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$15.71median $76.86$327.54
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$15.71
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$327.54
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVLT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVLT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Commvault Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $76.86, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $140.36. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-45.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +133.4% (fair value: $327.54), while EPV is the most conservative at -88.8% ($15.71). The spread between these extremes — +222.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CVLT?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CVLT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CVLT is $76.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $110.30 on its own, implying -21.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVLT Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 7 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, CVLT ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places CVLT in the top tier.

As a software business, Commvault Systems, Inc. operates in a sector where net revenue retention (NRR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CVLT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is CVLT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVLT a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Commvault Systems, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Commvault Systems, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVLT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVLT's 6 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Commvault Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

CXMSprinklr, Inc.QOC 8.4SSTISoundThinking, Inc.QOC 7.2ROCRank One Computing CorporationQOC 6.5SMSISmith Micro Software, Inc.QOC 5.3NXNTNEXSCIENT INC.QOC 4.4CYABCyabra, Inc.QOC 4.0

Read investment analysis: CXM · SSTI · ROC · SMSI · NXNT · CYAB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVLT?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVLT’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

EGEverest Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0TOLToll Brothers, Inc.QOC 9.0HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0SKYChampion Homes, Inc.QOC 9.0SNDKSandisk CorporationQOC 9.0KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EG · TOL · HGTY · SKY · SNDK · KTB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Commvault Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Commvault Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)'s intrinsic value at $76.86 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.71 to $327.54. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $110.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVLT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $140.36, 1 of 6 active models suggest CVLT may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $76.86, 45.2% below the current price of $140.36 — a consensus view that CVLT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Commvault Systems, Inc.'s business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for CVLT?

Commvault Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVLT?

CirclFi analyzes CVLT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVLT?

Of the 6 models currently active on CVLT, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $327.54 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $15.71. CirclFi's published fair value for CVLT is the median of that range, $76.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 406% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVLT a value trap in 2026?

Commvault Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT) has a median fair value of $76.86 — 45.2% below the current price of $140.36 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVLT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVLT valuation
  • Financial statements: Commvault Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001169561) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVLT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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