Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) Fair Value 2026

HRMY · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) trades at $39.87, versus a $40.47 median fair value across its 9 active models — 1.5% above the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $141.56.

Key Facts

Ticker
HRMY
Price
$39.87
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +255.0% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $40.47, within 1.5% of the current price of $39.87. Estimates range from $14.10 to $141.56. HRMY scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HRMY’s +1.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HRMY?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $141.56 +255.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $48.40 +21.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $47.07 +18.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.39 -1.2%
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What Is HRMY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $14.10 to $141.56

CirclFi's 9 active models place Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) between $14.10 and $141.56 per share, a spread of 315% of the median. The median of that range — $40.47 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HRMY, against a current price of $39.87.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Bayesian DCF
$14.10median $40.47$141.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$14.10
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$141.56
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HRMY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HRMY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $39.87. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $40.47 (+1.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $141.56 (+255.0%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $14.10 (-64.6%). This +319.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HRMY?

9 of 13 models are currently active for HRMY. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HRMY is $40.47 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $141.56 on its own, implying +255.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HRMY Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, HRMY ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places HRMY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotechnology enterprise businesses. For Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc., metrics like R&D burn rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HRMY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HRMY a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. scores 9.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +319.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HRMY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HRMY's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.5AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.2INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 9.1OKUROnKure Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9ACRVAcrivon Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.0PTHSPelthos Therapeutics Inc.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: ALNY · AUPH · INCY · HALO · EXEL · VRTX · OKUR · ACRV · PTHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HRMY?

7 companies across all industries closest to HRMY’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 9.2CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.QOC 9.2PDDPDD Holdings Inc.QOC 9.2ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.QOC 9.2VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2UPWKUpwork Inc.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRI · CDNS · PDD · ACGL · VRT · UPWK · NVDA

Where Does HRMY Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

HRMY is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)'s intrinsic value at $40.47 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.10 to $141.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $141.56 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HRMY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.87, 5 of 9 active models suggest HRMY may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $40.47, within 1.5% of the current price of $39.87 — a consensus view that HRMY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for HRMY?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HRMY?

CirclFi analyzes HRMY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HRMY?

Of the 9 models currently active on HRMY, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $141.56 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $14.10. CirclFi's published fair value for HRMY is the median of that range, $40.47, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 315% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HRMY a value trap in 2026?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) has a median fair value of $40.47 — within 1.5% of the current price of $39.87 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HRMY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HRMY valuation
  • Financial statements: Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001802665) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HRMY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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