Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) Fair Value 2026

HRMY · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) trades at $35.54, approximately 57% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $82.06. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HRMY
Price
$35.54
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +130.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$82.06 +130.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$16.14 -54.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$50.52 +42.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$64.25 +80.8%

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What Is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $35.54. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $54.21 (+52.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $202.71 (+470.4%), versus Dynamic NAV at $14.05 (-60.5%). This +530.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HRMY?

13 of 13 models are currently active for HRMY. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HRMY's intrinsic value at $82.06, implying +130.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HRMY Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 440 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, HRMY ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places HRMY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

The Pharmaceutical Preparations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biopharma enterprise businesses. For Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I, metrics like revenue per drug provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HRMY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HRMY a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I scores 10.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +530.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HRMY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HRMY's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · NVO · SIGA · UTHR

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I

What is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $82.06. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HRMY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.54, 6 of 13 active models suggest HRMY may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I's business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for HRMY?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HRMY?

CirclFi analyzes HRMY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HRMY a value trap in 2026?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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