The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Fair Value 2026

COCO · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) trades at $61.63, versus a $21.04 median fair value across its 9 active models — 65.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.54.

Key Facts

Ticker
COCO
Price
$61.63
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $21.04, 65.9% below the current price of $61.63. Estimates range from $10.54 to $77.88. COCO scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. COCO’s -65.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Vita Coco Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give COCO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($61.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.54 -82.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.64 -76.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.04 -65.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $36.76 -40.4%
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What Is COCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $10.54 to $77.88

CirclFi's 9 active models place The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) between $10.54 and $77.88 per share, a spread of 320% of the median. The median of that range — $21.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for COCO, against a current price of $61.63.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$10.54median $21.04$77.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$10.54
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$77.88
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for COCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on COCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $21.04. Trading at its current price of $61.63, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -65.9%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +26.4% (fair value: $77.88), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -82.9% ($10.54). The spread between these extremes — +109.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About COCO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for COCO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for COCO is $21.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.54 on its own, implying -82.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does COCO Rank in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic?

Among 20 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, COCO ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places COCO in the top tier.

The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s positioning within the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic segment means that brand equity index plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is COCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COCO a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for The Vita Coco Company, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +109.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every COCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across COCO's 9 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Vita Coco Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks with 13-model coverage

CELHCelsius Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationQOC 8.7KOFCoca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.8FIZZNational Beverage Corp.QOC 8.6KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyQOC 8.9BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6PEPPepsiCo, Inc.QOC 8.1WTERThe Alkaline Water Company Inc.QOC 5.6CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCQOC 9.1COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CELH · MNST · KOF · FIZZ · KO · BUDA · PEP · WTER · CCEP · COKE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to COCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to COCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

PGThe Procter & Gamble CompanyQOC 8.8NEUNewMarket CorporationQOC 8.8EACOEACO CorporationQOC 8.8UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.QOC 8.8HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PG · NEU · EACO · UAL · BLKB · HOG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Vita Coco Company, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO)'s intrinsic value at $21.04 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.54 to $77.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.54 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is COCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $61.63, 1 of 9 active models suggest COCO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $21.04, 65.9% below the current price of $61.63 — a consensus view that COCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s business model in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for COCO?

The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on COCO?

CirclFi analyzes COCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on COCO?

Of the 9 models currently active on COCO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $77.88 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $10.54. CirclFi's published fair value for COCO is the median of that range, $21.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 320% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is COCO a value trap in 2026?

The Vita Coco Company, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (COCO) has a median fair value of $21.04 — 65.9% below the current price of $61.63 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/COCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this COCO valuation
  • Financial statements: The Vita Coco Company, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001482981) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for COCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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