Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) Fair Value 2026

CELH · Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) trades at $29.83, approximately 178% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $10.72. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CELH
Price
$29.83
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($29.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$10.72 -64.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$13.14 -55.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$14.93 -50.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$22.63 -24.1%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.76. Trading at its current price of $29.83, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -50.5%. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $30.37 (+1.8%), versus Dynamic NAV at $2.92 (-90.2%). This +92.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CELH?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CELH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CELH's intrinsic value at $10.72, implying -64.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CELH Rank in Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters?

Among 9 Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters stocks, CELH ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places CELH in the top tier.

The Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters sector introduces analytical considerations specific to power and energy company businesses. For Celsius Holdings, Inc., metrics like customer growth rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CELH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CELH a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Celsius Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Celsius Holdings, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CELH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CELH's 13 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Celsius Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: COKE · MNST · FIZZ · CCEP · FMX

Frequently Asked Questions About Celsius Holdings, Inc.

What is Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $10.72. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CELH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $29.83, 1 of 13 active models suggest CELH may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for CELH?

Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CELH?

CirclFi analyzes CELH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CELH a value trap in 2026?

Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on CELH.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access