The Allstate Corporation (ALL) Fair Value 2026

ALL · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) trades at $257.62, versus a $307.05 median fair value across its 6 active models — 19.2% above the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALL
Price
$257.62
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +20.8% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $307.05, 19.2% above the current price of $257.62. Estimates range from $186.96 to $1451.70. ALL scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALL’s +19.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Allstate Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($257.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $247.41 -4.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $302.98 +17.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $311.12 +20.8%
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What Is ALL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $186.96 to $1451.70

CirclFi's 6 active models place The Allstate Corporation (ALL) between $186.96 and $1451.70 per share, a spread of 412% of the median. The median of that range — $307.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALL, against a current price of $257.62.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$186.96median $307.05$1451.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$186.96
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$1451.70
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Allstate Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $307.05. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $257.62 (implied upside of +19.2%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 4 of 6 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +463.5% (fair value: $1,451.70), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -27.4% ($186.96). The spread between these extremes — +490.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ALL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALL is $307.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALL Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, ALL ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places ALL in the top tier.

As a underwriting business, The Allstate Corporation operates in a sector where reserve adequacy is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ALL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ALL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for The Allstate Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, The Allstate Corporation is rated at 9.2/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +490.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALL's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Allstate Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

UVEUniversal Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.QOC 9.1PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0KINSKingstone Companies, Inc.QOC 9.5RLIRLI Corp.QOC 9.0MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7CNACNA Financial CorporationQOC 8.2PRCHPorch Group, Inc.QOC 6.9HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: UVE · TRV · PLMR · HGTY · KINS · RLI · MCY · CNA · PRCH · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALL’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.QOC 9.2UFPTUFP Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.2TMDXTransMedics Group, Inc.QOC 9.2ESPEspey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.QOC 9.2VICRVicor CorporationQOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HALO · YMM · UFPT · TMDX · ESP · VICR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Allstate Corporation’s Valuation?

What is The Allstate Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Allstate Corporation (ALL)'s intrinsic value at $307.05 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $186.96 to $1451.70. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $257.62, 4 of 6 active models suggest ALL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $307.05, 19.2% above the current price of $257.62 — a consensus view that ALL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Allstate Corporation's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for ALL?

The Allstate Corporation's QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALL?

CirclFi analyzes ALL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALL?

Of the 6 models currently active on ALL, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $1451.70 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $186.96. CirclFi's published fair value for ALL is the median of that range, $307.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 412% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALL a value trap in 2026?

The Allstate Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Allstate Corporation (ALL) has a median fair value of $307.05 — 19.2% above the current price of $257.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALL valuation
  • Financial statements: The Allstate Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000899051) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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