Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) Fair Value 2026

PLMR · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) trades at $131.63, versus a $137.64 median fair value across its 5 active models — 4.6% above the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PLMR
Price
$131.63
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +4.6% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $137.64, within 4.6% of the current price of $131.63. Estimates range from $85.73 to $156.55. PLMR scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PLMR’s +4.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Palomar Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PLMR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($131.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $137.64 +4.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $135.21 +2.7%
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What Is PLMR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $85.73 to $156.55

CirclFi's 5 active models place Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) between $85.73 and $156.55 per share, a spread of 51% of the median. The median of that range — $137.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PLMR, against a current price of $131.63.

Low · FTNNHigh · Markov DDM
$85.73median $137.64$156.55
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$85.73
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$156.55
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PLMR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $137.64, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $131.63. While the median implied return is +4.6%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +53.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $156.55 (+18.9%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $85.73 (-34.9%). This +53.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PLMR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for PLMR. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PLMR is $137.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PLMR Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 42 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, PLMR ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places PLMR in the top tier.

Within the Insurance - Property & Casualty space, Palomar Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where policy retention rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PLMR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PLMR a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Palomar Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Palomar Holdings, Inc. is rated at 9.5/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +53.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PLMR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PLMR's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Palomar Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

KINSKingstone Companies, Inc.QOC 9.5UVEUniversal Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5ALLThe Allstate CorporationQOC 9.2HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.QOC 9.1ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance CorporationQOC 8.8SLDESlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3STCStewart Information Services CorporationQOC 7.6HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9

Read investment analysis: KINS · UVE · KNSL · ALL · HRTG · TRV · ACIC · SLDE · STC · HCI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PLMR?

6 companies across all industries closest to PLMR’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 9.5HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.5CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CRM · HQY · ALNY · CARG · NXPI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Palomar Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR)'s intrinsic value at $137.64 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $85.73 to $156.55. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PLMR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $131.63, 4 of 5 active models suggest PLMR may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $137.64, within 4.6% of the current price of $131.63 — a consensus view that PLMR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for PLMR?

Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PLMR?

CirclFi analyzes PLMR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PLMR?

Of the 5 models currently active on PLMR, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $156.55 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $85.73. CirclFi's published fair value for PLMR is the median of that range, $137.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 51% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PLMR a value trap in 2026?

Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) has a median fair value of $137.64 — within 4.6% of the current price of $131.63 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PLMR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PLMR valuation
  • Financial statements: Palomar Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001761312) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PLMR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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