Apple Inc. (AAPL) Fair Value 2026

AAPL · Consumer Electronics ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Apple Inc. (AAPL) trades at $314.58, versus a $89.02 median fair value across its 9 active models — 71.7% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $116.18.

Key Facts

Ticker
AAPL
Price
$314.58
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Apple Inc. (AAPL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $89.02, 71.7% below the current price of $314.58. Estimates range from $41.00 to $206.24. AAPL scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AAPL’s -71.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Apple Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AAPL?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($314.58)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $116.18 -63.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $75.37 -76.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $89.02 -71.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $111.63 -64.5%
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What Is AAPL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $41.00 to $206.24

CirclFi's 9 active models place Apple Inc. (AAPL) between $41.00 and $206.24 per share, a spread of 186% of the median. The median of that range — $89.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AAPL, against a current price of $314.58.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$41.00median $89.02$206.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$41.00
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$206.24
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AAPL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AAPL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Apple Inc. (AAPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Apple Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $89.02. Trading at its current price of $314.58, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -71.7%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -34.4% (fair value: $206.24), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -87.0% ($41.00). The spread between these extremes — +52.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AAPL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AAPL. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AAPL is $89.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $116.18 on its own, implying -63.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AAPL Rank in Consumer Electronics?

Among 19 Consumer Electronics stocks, AAPL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places AAPL in the top tier.

Apple Inc.'s positioning within the Consumer Electronics segment means that inventory turnover plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including private label penetration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AAPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AAPL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Apple Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Apple Inc. earns a quality score of 9.5/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +52.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AAPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AAPL's 9 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Apple Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Consumer Electronics Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Consumer Electronics stocks with 13-model coverage

GMEXGMEX Robotics CorporationQOC 2.5SONYSony Group CorporationQOC 8.2CAPCCapstone Companies, Inc.QOC 3.9TBCHTurtle Beach CorporationQOC 8.0RIMEAlgorhythm Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.1AXILAXIL Brands, Inc.QOC 7.7SONOSonos, Inc.QOC 7.3VUZIVuzix CorporationQOC 6.0WLDSWearable Devices Ltd.QOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: GMEX · SONY · CAPC · TBCH · RIME · AXIL · SONO · VUZI · WLDS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AAPL?

7 companies across all industries closest to AAPL’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

LRNStride, Inc.QOC 9.5CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5KINSKingstone Companies, Inc.QOC 9.5ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.QOC 9.5CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LRN · CRUS · KNSL · KINS · ASR · CARG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Apple Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Apple Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Apple Inc. (AAPL)'s intrinsic value at $89.02 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $41.00 to $206.24. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $116.18 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AAPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $314.58, 0 of 9 active models suggest AAPL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $89.02, 71.7% below the current price of $314.58 — a consensus view that AAPL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Apple Inc.'s business model in Consumer Electronics.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for AAPL?

Apple Inc.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AAPL?

CirclFi analyzes AAPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AAPL?

Of the 9 models currently active on AAPL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $206.24 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $41.00. CirclFi's published fair value for AAPL is the median of that range, $89.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 186% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AAPL a value trap in 2026?

Apple Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has a median fair value of $89.02 — 71.7% below the current price of $314.58 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AAPL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AAPL valuation
  • Financial statements: Apple Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000320193) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AAPL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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