HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Fair Value 2026

HCI · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) trades at $186.88, versus a $183.60 median fair value across its 5 active models — 1.8% below the current price. QOC: 9.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HCI
Price
$186.88
Quality Score
9.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $183.60, within 1.8% of the current price of $186.88. Estimates range from $15.68 to $351.68. HCI scores 9.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HCI’s -1.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HCI Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HCI?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($186.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $183.60 -1.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.68 -91.6%
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What Is HCI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $15.68 to $351.68

CirclFi's 5 active models place HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) between $15.68 and $351.68 per share, a spread of 183% of the median. The median of that range — $183.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HCI, against a current price of $186.88.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$15.68median $183.60$351.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$15.68
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$351.68
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HCI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HCI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HCI Group, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $186.88. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $183.60 (-1.8% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 2 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $351.68 (+88.2%), versus Markov DDM at $15.68 (-91.6%). This +179.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HCI?

5 of 13 models are currently active for HCI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HCI is $183.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HCI Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, HCI ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.9 places HCI in the top tier.

HCI Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that investment float plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including distribution channel efficiency — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HCI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HCI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for HCI Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HCI Group, Inc. scores 9.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HCI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HCI's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HCI Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

PRHIPresurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7LMNDLemonade, Inc.QOC 6.6KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5NODKNI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.7KINSKingstone Companies, Inc.QOC 9.5MKLMarkel Group Inc.QOC 9.0UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0

Read investment analysis: PRHI · HRTG · LMND · KNSL · NODK · KINS · MKL · UFCS · L

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HCI?

6 companies across all industries closest to HCI’s Quality of Company score of 9.9/10.

NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8DUKUDuke Energy CorporationQOC —KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8AKANAkanda Corp.QOC 1.3FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: NVDA · ADSK · DUKU · KLAC · AKAN · FUTU

What Else Do Investors Ask About HCI Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is HCI Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)'s intrinsic value at $183.60 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.68 to $351.68. The Quality of Company score is 9.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HCI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $186.88, 2 of 5 active models suggest HCI may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $183.60, within 1.8% of the current price of $186.88 — a consensus view that HCI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HCI Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.9 mean for HCI?

HCI Group, Inc.'s QOC of 9.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HCI?

CirclFi analyzes HCI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HCI?

Of the 5 models currently active on HCI, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $351.68 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $15.68. CirclFi's published fair value for HCI is the median of that range, $183.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 183% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HCI a value trap in 2026?

HCI Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) has a median fair value of $183.60 — within 1.8% of the current price of $186.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HCI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HCI valuation
  • Financial statements: HCI Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001400810) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HCI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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