Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Fair Value 2026

KNSL · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) trades at $381.80, versus a $228.72 median fair value across its 5 active models — 40.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KNSL
Price
$381.80
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $228.72, 40.1% below the current price of $381.80. Estimates range from $109.89 to $372.39. KNSL scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KNSL’s -40.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KNSL?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($381.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $229.79 -39.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $109.89 -71.2%
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What Is KNSL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $109.89 to $372.39

CirclFi's 5 active models place Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) between $109.89 and $372.39 per share, a spread of 115% of the median. The median of that range — $228.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KNSL, against a current price of $381.80.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$109.89median $228.72$372.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$109.89
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$372.39
Model agreement0 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KNSL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KNSL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $228.72. Trading at its current price of $381.80, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -40.1%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $372.39 (-2.5%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $109.89 (-71.2%). This +68.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About KNSL?

5 of 13 models are currently active for KNSL. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for KNSL is $228.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KNSL Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, KNSL ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places KNSL in the top tier.

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that policy retention rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including distribution channel efficiency — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KNSL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KNSL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.5/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +68.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KNSL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KNSL's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7KINSKingstone Companies, Inc.QOC 9.5HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9PLMRPalomar Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5PRHIPresurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.9UVEUniversal Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.5CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.QOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: HRTG · KINS · HCI · PLMR · PRHI · UVE · CINF · WRB · HIPO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KNSL?

7 companies across all industries closest to KNSL’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

ASRGrupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V.QOC 9.5LRNStride, Inc.QOC 9.5IDCCInterDigital, Inc.QOC 9.5AAPLApple Inc.QOC 9.5MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 9.5CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ASR · LRN · IDCC · AAPL · MPWR · CRUS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL)'s intrinsic value at $228.72 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $109.89 to $372.39. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KNSL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $381.80, 0 of 5 active models suggest KNSL may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $228.72, 40.1% below the current price of $381.80 — a consensus view that KNSL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for KNSL?

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KNSL?

CirclFi analyzes KNSL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KNSL?

Of the 5 models currently active on KNSL, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $372.39 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $109.89. CirclFi's published fair value for KNSL is the median of that range, $228.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 115% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KNSL a value trap in 2026?

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) has a median fair value of $228.72 — 40.1% below the current price of $381.80 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KNSL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KNSL valuation
  • Financial statements: Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001669162) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KNSL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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