White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) Fair Value 2026

WTM · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) trades at $2135.41, versus a $3798.69 median fair value across its 5 active models — 77.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
WTM
Price
$2135.41
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +77.9% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $3798.69, 77.9% above the current price of $2135.41. Estimates range from $1224.38 to $6548.02. WTM scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. WTM’s +77.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WTM?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2135.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3798.69 +77.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1224.38 -42.7%
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What Is WTM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1224.38 to $6548.02

CirclFi's 5 active models place White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) between $1224.38 and $6548.02 per share, a spread of 140% of the median. The median of that range — $3798.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WTM, against a current price of $2135.41.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$1224.38median $3798.69$6548.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1224.38
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$6548.02
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WTM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WTM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $2,135.41. Based on our 13-model framework, White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $3,798.69 — representing +77.9% implied upside — with 4 out of 5 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $6,548.02 (+206.6%), versus Markov DDM at $1,224.38 (-42.7%). This +249.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About WTM?

5 of 13 models are currently active for WTM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WTM is $3798.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WTM Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 42 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, WTM ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places WTM in the top tier.

The Insurance - Property & Casualty sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd., metrics like premium growth rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is WTM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WTM a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +249.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WTM's 5 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3ORIOld Republic International CorporationQOC 8.6ASICAtegrity Specialty Insurance CoQOC 8.3AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.3SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 7.9HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9MKLMarkel Group Inc.QOC 9.0HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: UFCS · WRB · ORI · ASIC · AII · SIGI · SAFT · HCI · MKL · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WTM?

7 companies across all industries closest to WTM’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

NCSMNCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4QCRHQCR Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4RRXRegal Rexnord CorporationQOC 8.4ACAArcosa, Inc.QOC 8.4SIGASIGA Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NCSM · QCRH · IDR · RRX · ACA · SIGA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM)'s intrinsic value at $3798.69 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1224.38 to $6548.02. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2135.41, 4 of 5 active models suggest WTM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $3798.69, 77.9% above the current price of $2135.41 — a consensus view that WTM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for WTM?

White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WTM?

CirclFi analyzes WTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WTM?

Of the 5 models currently active on WTM, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $6548.02 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1224.38. CirclFi's published fair value for WTM is the median of that range, $3798.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 140% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WTM a value trap in 2026?

White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) has a median fair value of $3798.69 — 77.9% above the current price of $2135.41 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WTM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WTM valuation

Market data for WTM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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